The Colorado Avalanche have been the most active team on the trade market this season. If not in volume of transactions, at the very least in impactful swaps. Moving both halves of your goalie tandem by early December is about as major of a shake-up as a team could make. That is, until you shock the hockey landscape by dealing a top-10 talent in the league on what was a quiet Friday night in late January.
The Avalanche and GM Chris MacFarland were all but forced to pull the trigger on new goaltenders if they wanted to contend. The first of the two goalie trades swapped backups Justus Annunen and Scott Wedgewood and paid some immediate dividends for Colorado. Still, it did not fundamentally change the Avalanche and their outlook.
What did shift things mightily, was the ensuing follow-up trade. A trade in which the Avalanche sent embattled starter Alexandar Georgiev to San Jose for Mackenzie Blackwood. The improvement in the net is so statistically significant as to feel astronomical. Georgiev was at or near the bottom of the NHL at 8-7 with Colorado and posted an unsightly .874 SV%. Unfortunately for Georgiev, he has only ticked that percentage up by .1% with the Sharks.
Meanwhile, Blackwood has been incredible for the Avalanche. So good in fact, that here at MHS he has been written about as , "the only reason Colorado is in playoff contention". Blackwood has gone 14-6-2 with the Avalanche while boasting .922 SV%. Scott Wedgewood, for his part, compiled a 5-3 record while also being .910% on saves. Even while missing some time with injury, those combined numbers prove the moves were not just smart, but a necessity for a team with title hopes.
The second seismic event in the Avalanche locker room was the surprise trade of Mikko Rantanen for Martin Necas, Jack Drury and picks. The Rantanen trade is still fresh, and is a bit harder to analyze because it alters so much, beyond even the players involved in the deal. There are questions about the impending cap increase which seem to suggest the move may have been premature.
What is clear, however, is the apparent fit of Martin Necas. Necas, who I've affectionately nicknamed Marty McFly, looks great! He's collected 4 goals and 5 assists in his first 8 games with the Avalanche. At just over a point a game in production, our new #88 looks right at home next to Nathan MacKinnon.
On a deeper level, Necas has been able work not just as a stylistic compliment to the Avalanche top line with standout speed, but he's given them fresh juice. Necas has elite zone-entry abilities, which have been evident on a power play that looked to be out of ideas.
I don't think it's unfair to look at these two major moves and grade them individually, and then figure out a cumulative assessment.
The goalie trades would confidently be called a solid A grade. The moves were absolutely necessary. Team confidence was restored. Colorado went from a league-worst tandem, to one of the best. Quite frankly, the only reason it isn't an A+ is because the guys have to prove it in the postseason.
The Rantanen for Necas and Drury trade, though more heart-rending, looks to be a shrewd and well-considered transaction. It has the potential to be a win for both sides, which would be more than fine by me personally. The playoff question is much the same however, and in this case more risky by far.
Avalanche fans know for certain that Mikko Rantanen is a playoff beast. In 88 games in the postseason Rantanen piled up 101 points! Necas by contrast has 11 goals and 19 helpers for 30 total points in 59 playoff games. That is a scary drop-off. The Avalanche are betting a whole lot on a belief that their system, and especially playing with Nathan MacKinnon, will supercharge Necas' potential.
It is because of this rather large unknown that I can only go as high as a B for a grade on the Necas and Drury for Rantanen trade at this time. To be completely honest though, that I have been this quickly won over by Necas is a welcome surprise.
The other important caveat in this trade is that it netted the Avalanche front office extra 2nd and 4th round draft picks. For this reason I am virtually certain that the team isn't done dealing before the trade deadline.
The most pressing needs look to be depth up the middle and stability on the third defensive pair. There have been more than a few rumblings about moving on from Casey Mittelstadt. I've already written about how I thought the team would show patience there. Even after the Mikko trade, others at MHS agree.
The Colorado Avalanche should swing for Ryan O’Reilly
My dream scenario right now might be classified as pie-in-the-sky by armchair GMs. But I would drool over a reunion with Ryan O'Reilly. For a few years now, Avs faithful have held out hope for Nazem Kadri - but his contract remains too rich. O'Reilly by comparison is the same age, and just over half the price. He also has term left on his deal through 26-27.
It would be a colossal swing by the Avalanche front office, and would probably involve moving at least one roster player. But the former Avalanche center would solve a bevy of issues. He's good at faceoffs, solid on defense, tough, and a proven leader. If CMac and Joe Sakic somehow land him without parting ways with Mittelstadt, he'd also be a great mentor. The Predators are reportedly willing to deal, and they've shipped the Avalanche two players this year.
As we sit here today, the front office has earned a more than respectable B+ in my view. This team, as ever, is in win now mode. The Colorado Avalanche are not going to sit on their hands, but how boldly they step into the new era remains to be seen.