Casey Mittelstadt could be poised for a breakout season with the Colorado Avalanche in 2024-25

Casey Mittelstadt could be on the verge of becoming one of the league’s best top-six centers this season with the Colorado Avalanche.

That statement is no hyperbole.

It’s an observation based on the circumstances surrounding Mittelstadt with the Avs.

Mittelstadt was drafted eighth overall in 2017 by the Buffalo Sabres. He played his first full season a year later but didn’t have quite the expected impact. Then, his production didn’t really take off until the 2022-23 season, when he notched 15 goals and added 44 assists for 59 points.

Those numbers put Mittelstadt on the map, making him an attractive trade chip for the bargain-hunting Sabres. The Sabres feared they might not be able to re-sign Mittelstadt so they shipped him off to the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avalanche got the better part of this deal.

In a relatively small sample size, the Avs got 10 points in 18 games from Mittelstadt. He then chipped in nine points in 11 postseason games. Those encouraging numbers prompted the Avs to sign Mittelstadt to a three-year, $17.25 million contract.

The Avs are betting on Mittelstadt breaking out this upcoming season. By the looks of things, Mittelstadt is poised to eclipse his career highs. I know such an idea could be chalked up to wishful thinking. But then again, there’s a huge difference between playing in Buffalo and playing in Colorado.

Three reasons why Casey Mittelstadt could break out this upcoming season.

To begin with, let’s define what “break out” means. I use this term to refer to a season in which Mittelstadt scores at least 20 to 25 goals and surpasses the 70-point mark. In reality, that’s not quite a stretch. It’s entirely doable for the 25-year-old Minnesota native.

First, Mittelstadt will be playing top-six minutes. He’ll be playing with much more talented linemates in Artturi Lehkonen and Nikolai Kovalenko. That trio is built for speed and agility. In comparison, Mittelstadt lacked legit top-six linemates in Buffalo, mainly due to the club’s ongoing rebuild.

Second, the Avs have one of the league’s best coaches. Jared Bednar has proven he can get the most out of his players, deploying them in the right spots. That’s something that did not happen for Mittelstadt in Buffalo. Bednar has shown that deploying Mittelstadt in the offensive zone has greatly enabled his chances at getting the puck and generating scoring opportunities.

Lastly, Mittelstadt is surrounded by elite players like Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. Again, that sort of core is something the Sabres sorely lack. While the Sabres have talented players of their own, they are not Hart and Norris Trophy winners. Also, on a related note, players in Buffalo don’t have a Stanley Cup to their name.

When all put together, Mittelstadt is in the right place at the right time. There’s no reason why he couldn’t shoot for the moon and top 80 points. But realistically speaking, Mittelstadt could improve upon his career highs, making his $5.75 million cap hit look like a bargain.