Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon has surpassed his value this season, according to The Athletic’s Central Division player cards.
The Athletic looked at the Central Division’s best players’ performances, comparing them to the publication’s original projections at the start of the season.
Thus far, MacKinnon is right on target. His current +22 net rating places him right on pace with his projected +23 rating at the start of the season.
MacKinnon currently ranks +17 offensively, falling slightly short of his +19 forecast. The slight drop-off is due to his lower-than-expected goal total. At the moment, Nathan MacKinnon is projected to score 30 goals. That total falls short of his 34 project goals this season.
Now, MacKinnon’s goal totals should be taken with a grain of salt. He’s got 20 in 55 games. With 27 games to go, there’s a chance MacKinnon could go on a hot streak and surpass the 30-goal mark.
But where MacKinnon exceeds expectations is his assist total. He’s got 60 and is on pace to surpass his projected 87 assist total. While getting to 100 may seem a bit of a stretch, anything is possible if he and the Avs go on a hot streak.
Lastly, MacKinnon is projected to be on the money with his 121 total points. At the moment, Nathan MacKinnon is on pace for 119 points. That’s certainly an impressive total and could land him another Art Ross Trophy.
MacKinnon currently trails Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl by one point for the league lead. So, the race for the league lead in points could come down to the wire. But fans should expect MacKinnon to be atop the leaderboard by the end of the season.
Nathan MacKinnon surpassing contract value for Colorado Avalanche
According to The Athletic’s player card, Nathan MacKinnon has a market value of $13.4 million. That’s $0.8 million above his current $12.6 million cap hit.
That amount may not seem like a lot, but it’s actually right up at the top of the NHL’s highest-paid players. The current highest AAV is Auston Matthews’ $13.25 million. That amount will become the second-highest once Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV goes into effect next season.
If we were to judge MacKinnon’s market value, he would be the second-highest-paid player in the NHL. Plus, with the salary cap going up next season, MacKinnon’s contract looks like a bargain.
MacKinnon’s current deal will be up in 2031. At that point, he’ll be 35 and most likely looking for one last multi-year deal before calling it a career. Unless injuries take their toll or his play declines significantly, MacKinnon could get a three or four-year deal somewhere around the $8 to $10 million AAV.
Of course, the Avs will cross that bridge when they get to it. In the meantime, MacKinnon has exceeded his value for the Colorado Avalanche as he goes about setting franchise records. With a Stanley Cup already under his belt, it seems like it will only be a matter of time before MacKinnon cements his Hall of Legacy once and for all.