The Colorado Avalanche are the NHL's top team right now and they don't look like they are slowing down at all. The evidence is plentiful: Winners of five straight, points in nine straight, and points in 17 of 18 games. TheY have one regulation loss in 18 games with the next-closest teams being at four regulation losses. The recent dominating 9-1 win over the defending Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers was a statement that the Avalanche are for real. The question is, can they keep it up?
Historical hot starts and what it means
The Avalanche are 12-1-5 right now for one of the best starts in team history. Some of their best starts through 18 games were 12-4-2 (94-95), 13-2-3 (00-01), 12-4-2 (09-10), and 14-4-0 (13-14). Each of these seasons, the Avalanche made the playoffs, and those first two seasons ended with the Avs lifting the Stanley Cup. The start the most recent Cup-winning team had a pretty good start at 11-6-1, so this hot start for the team is a very good sign.
We witnessed the Winnipeg Jets have a historic start with a 14-1-0 record to open last season and stay atop the league en route to a President's Trophy. Hot starts can often translate to a President's Trophy for an NHL team, as the "President's Trophy Curse" is a very real hockey superstition. The last time we saw a team break that curse was in 2012-13, when the Chicago Blackhawks did it. Those Blackhawks had a 21-0-3 record to start that season, another historic beginning to a season. The last two teams with less than 10 wins through 18 games to win the Stanley Cup were the St. Louis Blues in 2018-19 and the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019-20.
How the Avs can stay on top
First off, the Avalanche have to continue to play with their foot on the gas. For years, this squad has thrived whenever they completely buy in to the downhill, shoot the puck often mentality. We've seen it more this year, and most importantly, we've seen it early. If this team can continue to score early and often to keep themselves ahead, it should help them stay ahead in the standings. If the Avalanche can figure out how to convert with the man-advantage, then they can be even more dominant.
Of course, the next thing this team needs is something no one can control. These Avs have to stay healthy. This season has been more fortunate than seasons past (especially last season), but the injury bug is still causing problems for this team. Valeri Nichushkin recently exited the team's win over the Buffalo Sabres and will miss some time. The team is also currently awaiting the return of Logan O'Connor. Mackenzie Blackwood and Samuel Girard, who have both recently returned from injury, have also missed a significant chunk of the season.
Overcoming the schedule
I think the biggest hurdle for the Avalanche is overcoming this season's grueling schedule.
Of course, any team needs to stay healthy and overcome their tough schedule to win in any sport, in any season but, the Olympics will have a huge effect on both. The condensed schedule is to compensate for the long Olympic break. And of course, players like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog, and Martin Necas, along with a few other likely representatives from the Avalanche, are going to give it their all for their country. That means injury risk becomes even greater this season.
As far as rest goes, the month of November is the only month the Avalanche have two sets of three days off. There's one of those breaks in December and one in January. Of course, there's a two week break in February, but that's for the Winter Olympics. The return from the Olympics is especially hectic with only two sets of two off days till the end of the season. This kind of schedule can cause stress in the locker room or lead to more injury.
The Avalanche have nine more sets of back-to-back games this season, six of which have both games on the road. I find the back-to-back against the Rangers and Flyers at the beginning of December as a concern because it's in the middle of a four-game road trip and it's a set of afternoon games. Another back-to-back against Carolina and then in Miami with the defending Stanley Cup champions is another tough test.
If the Avalanche can continue to push the pace and play their high-flying offensive game while staying healthy throughout this extra-tough schedule, they can continue to stay atop the league in the standings.