The Colorado Avalanche are atop the NHL standings with 19 points after 13 games. They can thank their five overtime losses for the extra five points. However, they can't really thank their power play, which continues to struggle, despite a solid performance against the New Jersey Devils on October 28th. They've climbed up from 30th to 23rd after that performance, but struggled to follow that up, going 0-2 against both the Vegas Golden Knights and the San Jose Sharks. Let's dive in to what's working and what's not.
Swapping personnel
In my previous article on the Avs' power play woes, I stated that the first thing that would greatly help the Avalanche is to correctly utilize their personnel on the ice. Specifically, moving Valeri Nichushkin up and dropping Brock Nelson to the second unit. The top unit needed size when they had Artturi Lehkonen up at the top and didn't get much bigger when they swapped him for Victor Olofsson. When the Devils came to town, they swapped in Nichushkin for Nelson and exploded for four goals on seven opportunities.
The reason for swapping the personnel and why it works is that all four of the forwards (Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Olofsson and Nichushkin) can effectively rotate each position down low. Both Necas and MacKinnon often position in front of the net during their rotation, but Nichushkin adds the ability to patrol the slot and bounce between net front and the bumper. Nelson was often parked at the bumper or rotated to the far circle, which hindered the rotation and caused the team to force bumper and cross-ice passes.
Still learning Dave Hakstol's system
Dave Hakstol was hired to replace Ray Bennett and has installed a much more complicated system than Bennett's. I see the Avalanche often reverting back to habits learned in Bennett's system. The most egregious issue is that the top unit find themselves standing still which is what breeds the excessive passing problem. I said this last time, I still think the team is figuring out how the system works and haven't quite gotten everything worked out.
However, the performance against New Jersey really showed what this team is capable of with the man advantage. All four power play goals were scored from the faceoff circles which is where MacKinnon, Necas, and Olofsson are most dangerous. The positional rotation is what the players have been inconsistent on, as any three players seem to rotate at a time to create lanes and spread the defense. They've been able to do this fairly well, but everything seems a bit late when the quality opportunities start to present themselves.
Opportunities for change
One of the major aspects of the power play strategy that I find problematic is that there are less shots from Cale Makar at the point. With Nichushkin in front, who is a wizard at puck deflections, you'd think that just throwing it that way can create opportunities for him or at least more chaos with rebounds and opposing players being committed to recovering the puck. With Brent Burns and Devon Toews, the team has other weapons at the point, especially Burns—who's made a career off of big bombs from the point.
With the idea that they are still struggling with implementing the system, and are at 91% in Corsi, indicates that they are doing things right. They're getting set up in the zone, controlling play, and getting shots off. But the problem is the quality of the shots. According to Moneypuck, the Avs have 90 Shots For and only two of them are high danger shots. For a team with this level of talent, that is far too few high danger shots. That's last in the league and, in contrast, they lead the league in low danger Shots For with 79. This is obviously one of the biggest reasons why this team has been unable to convert.
What we should expect next
I think that the incorrect use of personnel was addressed and now the team just needs to find the chemistry and get the bugs worked out of the system. The grueling schedule probably has contributed to some of the struggles, but the month of November looks a little more favorable for them, specifically only two afternoon games.
I think creating more high danger shots is high up on the list of ways to improve and I think that finding more rebounds and creating space through shots from the point are one of the easiest ways for this team to do that. Obviously getting more shots from Makar would be ideal, but both Necas and MacKinnon could do more to put the puck towards the net from high in the zone.
I still think the Avalanche have been pretty good on the power play, despite the struggles in scoring. The team is dangerous a man up but can't score, and equally as dangerous at 5-on-5. With that kind of recipe, this team can be scary good by the end of the season if the power play finds its way. Time will tell if they can figure out how to create more at 5-on-4.