The Man Advantage: Can the Avalanche solve the power play puzzle?

The Colorado Avalanche have been downright dominant for most of the six games they've played this season. Cruising to a 5-0-1 record, with the only loss to the Dallas Stars. However, much like last postseason, the Avalanche have been struggling to convert on the power play, despite all the offensive firepower this team boasts. So what can the team do to right the ship? This season, I'll be covering the Avs‘ special teams play each week. I'm starting with the power play and next week I'll cover the penalty kill and alternate from there.

In order to really delve into the problems, we have to know what the team's strategy is. With new assistant coach Dave Hakstol commanding the power play, the team has used some new schemes in all areas - breakouts, zone entries, and the power play itself. The breakouts and zone entries have been good so far this season, so I'll touch on those briefly and how they're different from last year and then I'll discuss the offensive zone strategy.

The strategy

The breakout the Avalanche used last year was the same 'slingshot' breakout we've seen since the Stanley Cup run in 2022. While it was effective that year, the rest of the NHL learned how to defend it quickly. This year, the Avs run a modified slingshot. Instead of the back pass coming from the red line to Nathan MacKinnon in the defensive zone, the back pass comes closer to the offensive zone blue line to the puck carrier as he crosses the defensive zone blue line. This gives the defense less time to react on the zone entries.

The zone entries have been different, mostly because it isn't just MacKinnon doing all the work. This year we've seen both MacKinnon and Martin Necas carry into the zone. In addition to varying the puck carrier, the breakout strategy has also allowed the team to make cleaner entries using different plays. Last season, much of the Avs' problem on the power play stemmed from being stood up at the line.

Once the team gets into the zone, they have to get the play set up and everyone into position. They've actually been able to accomplish this for most of their power play chances so far. According to MoneyPuck, when on the power play, the Avs have a Corsi and Fenwick For percentage that ranks above 90%, good for sixth in the league. This shows that they have had good puck possession in the zone. This is much different than last year, when the team was below 90% and ranked 15th and 16th respectively.

Former assistant coach Ray Bennett's system employed a 1-3-1 formation, with two players on the half wall, one at the net front, one in the bumper, and one on the point. Hakstol's system is more of a 2-1-2. The two players down low will rotate behind the net, in the corners, and to the front of the net. Generally, MacKinnon stays in that area, while Necas will rotate up the boards from the corner to the point.

Then there's the bumper spot, where most recently we've seen Brock Nelson and Victor Olofsson. With Cale Makar usually manning the point alone. That allows Necas to free roam on the far side of the ice. This is a complete 180 from last year's strategies as Bennett's system had little player movement, Hakstol's strategy is built on creating seams by stretching the defense with low to high passes and player movement. The old system relied heavily on cross-ice passes and passes to the bumper.

Identifying the problem

The Avalanche have gone 3-24 on the power play for an abysmal 12.0%. Not for lack of trying as the team has had double digit shot attempts on goal while a man up in every game this season except against Columbus, when they only had two. Against both Dallas and Buffalo this year, they had 17 shot attempts while on the power play. With a total of 67 shot attempts on the power play through six games, that gives them an average of about 11 shot attempts per game.

So those of us screaming "Shoot the puck!" at the TV, can stop now. The Avs are shooting the puck more, however, these shots have not been high quality. A team with this level of talent should be able to generate high danger chances, especially on the power play. Of their 56 shots on goal, 46 are low danger chances. That ranks them third. In contrast, they have eight medium danger chances and two high danger chances, ranking them 27th and 20th respectively.

Fixing the problem

There's two things I think that are contributing to these struggles with the power play. First, I don't think they're utilizing their personnel in the right ways. Brock Nelson looks out of place. They have to figure out how Necas and MacKinnon can work together, as sometimes both do the same things and it looks like it throws off the rhythm. Without a big body in front or in the bumper, the team has been unable to get sticks on pucks heading to the net or collecting rebounds. My first fix would be to swap Nelson for Nichushkin and get him stationed in the slot.

The second thing is that the players are still learning Hakstol's system, which is much more complicated than the previous system. Even at 5-on-5, the team looks just a little out of sync. I think with time, the team will start to figure out the nuances of Hakstol's system and find their rhythm with each other. I've seen too many passes be just out of the reach of the intended recipient.

The Avalanche have too much talent to be running at 12.0% clip on the power play. But it's early in the season, with a new system. I think with time, they'll work out the kinks, the players will dig in to their roles and the shots will start going through. Have patience Avs faithful, MacKinnon and company will break through soon.