For seemingly the entire season, Colorado Avalanche superstar blueliner has seemed like a lock for the Norris Trophy.
But as the season winds down, there could be a possibility that the Norris race might be a little too close for comfort. In particular, the emergence of Edmonton Oilers blueliner Evan Bouchard as this year’s leading scorer among defensemen could sway voters away from Makar.
After Saturday night’s action, Bouchard leads the NHL with 88 points in 77 games. His 21 goals are tied for third among blueliners, with his 67 assists second behind only Quinn Hughes.
Bouchard’s impressive offensive output could catapult him to the top of the Norris race. Plus, his path to the Norris got a major boost with Makar likely not returning before the end of the regular season.
As such, could Bouchard unseat Makar for the Norris? The answer to that question comes down to a matter of perspective.
For voters who place a great deal of importance on offensive numbers, Bouchard’s league-leading point totals should be enough to convince voters.
But if voters look at a larger body of work, Bouchard may find it tough to beat Makar.
The main reservation behind Bouchard’s overall claim to elite defenseman status lies in his defensive game. All too often, Oilers fans have seen Bouchard commit crucial defensive miscues. That’s something rarely seen in Makar, Hughes, or even Zach Werenski.
Then again, Norris voters don’t generally perceive defensive shortcomings as a detriment. We’ve seen other defensively challenged defensemen like Erik Karlsson take home the Norris in the past.
Hughes has also won the award, and he’s not precisely the most impressive defensive defenseman.
There’s one other reason why Bouchard may manage to wrangle the Norris away from Makar, and it has nothing to do with the Avalanche blueliner’s performance.
Recency bias may cause Makar to miss out on Norris
Recency bias plays a significant role in awards voting. Namely, the fact that Makar has missed the final batch of games this season could move Bouchard, or Werenski for that matter, to the top of voters’ minds.
The situation could be different if Makar were playing and having a strong finish to the season. In that case, Bouchard would have to prove he’s significantly better than Makar.
And that may be the only lingering question in voters’ minds. Is Bouchard significantly better than Makar? Is Bouchard’s league-leading point total the result of the Oilers blueliner evolving to the point where he’s better than Makar?
It’s hard to think that Bouchard has become a better all-around defenseman than Makar in one season. Perhaps it’s that one-year blip that may catapult Bouchard over Werenski and Makar for the Norris this season.
We’ll have to wait a couple of months before finding out what voters ultimately had in mind.