Colorado Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon was the player most affected by the Mikko Rantanen trade. The Finnish star had been MacKinnon’s linemate, seemingly forever. Once Rantanen left, MacKinnon was bereft of a friend and familiar target.
However, the arrival of Martin Necas has been very good for MacKinnon. As a study published in RG Media on November 25 shows, MacKinnon is actually better off with Necas than Rantanen.
The study looked at advanced stats comparing MacKinnon with Rantanen and MacKinnon with Necas. The numbers paint quite the interesting story.
In their last 49 games, the MacKinnon-Rantanen duo played 617:25 minutes. They scored 31 goals 5v5. Contrast that with the MacKinnon-Necas duo, whose ice time has been 584:25, with 42 goals 5v5.
All right, so a caveat here. Initially, Necas played with MacKinnon, then spent some time with Brock Nelson, and then returned to the MacKinnon line. That flip-flopping does impact the numbers. But as we’ve seen this season, Necas and MacKinnon have had fantastic chemistry.
Now, here are some truly telling numbers. The MacKinnon-Rantanen duo took on 25 goals against 5v5. Meanwhile, the MacKinnon-Necas duo has only allowed 17. That’s a difference of +6 compared to +25.
A couple of conclusions here:
First, the MacKinnon-Necas combo has scored 11 more goals, while giving up eight fewer. That marks a significant difference on the ice and the scoreboard. It’s part of the reason why the Avalanche were struggling to remain in the playoff race last season, compared to this year’s dominant performance.
Second, Necas is a much better defensive presence. Rantanen, as we know, doesn’t play defense. He’s a puck possession guy and goes to the net. It’s surprising that he’s fit in well in Dallas, considering their defense-heavy approach. As such, having Necas has given the Avalanche improved defense, a number reflected in a key metric.
Avalanche getting much improved offense-defense from Necas
So, nerding out on the advanced stats, we see some glaring numbers. The number of high-danger chances 5v5 for Rantanen was 131 in his last 49 games. That number has spiked to 163 with Necas.
In contrast, the high-danger chances against 5v5 with Rantanen were 126. That number plummeted to 98 with Necas. That’s a significant difference for HDCF% (high-danger corsi for) 5v5 of 51% to 62.5%.
In light of these numbers, it’s plausible to conclude that Martin Necas has been a major upgrade for the Avalanche. But there’s one other issue to contemplate. There’s a prevailing myth that the Avalanche’s power play has somehow been inferior without Rantanen.
Well, with Necas in the fold, the Avalanche have scored 31 power play goals to 28 with Rantanen. However, the Rantanen days produced 84 high-danger chances to 61 with Necas.
As the study noted, the difference in that particular stat is due to:
“And this highlights a structural issue that hasn’t fully shown itself yet: the Avalanche still haven’t found a power-play setup that gives them the same level of dominance they enjoyed in previous years.”
So, the Avalanche have scored more goals while generating fewer chances. That means the club has been more efficient in scoring on the power play since Necas arrived.
Lastly, the Avalanche have given fewer power play goals with Necas on the ice, while allowing fewer high-danger chances. That’s why it seems Necas has turned out to be a clear upgrade over Rantanen, for a slightly lower price.