Colorado Avalanche Rebuild: Augmenting the Core
One option for the Colorado Avalanche rebuilding is to strip the team around the core and complement the talent they already have.
Whether we like it or not, the Colorado Avalanche are in a rebuild. During the 2013-14 season, it looked like the rebuild they’d been in already was coming to fruition. However, the team has regressed every year since until they’re now the worst in the NHL — and certainly the worst they’ve ever been in their history.
Well, we’ve already spent some time laying blame:
And we’ll probably continue to lay more. However, for right now let’s simply admit that we’re in the middle of a rebuild.
In a previous post, I talked about one possibility for rebuilding — blowing up the core. It’s certainly the most drastic. Whether or not it’s the one that yields the best return is debatable. Personally, I’m not a fan.
Today, let’s look at the direct opposite method. Instead of blowing up the core, the team could keep it intact and augment it. To be honest, I think this is what Joe Sakic meant to do all along, which is why he didn’t trade Tyson Barrie or Matt Duchene last year.
For this method, you still need as much vision as with blowing up the core and starting over. You also need some creativity to adequately augment the existing talent — I think that’s what’s been lacking thus far. Finally, the Avalanche also need to be honest about what their mold is — you have to know what exactly you’re trying to achieve if you want to achieve it.
Let’s start there.
Colorado Avalanche Mold
With the previous regime, when Patrick Roy was active in player personnel decisions, the Colorado Avalanche mold was clear. First of all, the preferred size was big — 6-foot-3, 200-pound forwards were desired, and defensemen should be at least that size.
Part of the rationale for size, besides withstanding the rigors of a physical game, was to enable a gritty style. Players were expected to win their battles, especially in the corners, and drive the net.
It wasn’t all about bruisers, though. Speed was prized — strong skating skills were essential. What’s more, players should not only have a strong work ethic, they should also display leadership skills. Talent was valued, of course, but the previous regime was a meritocracy — players had to earn their ice time.
Only bits and pieces of that previous mold seem to be the valued characteristics now. Speed is highly valued, but stick-handling seems to be prized over size or grit. Work ethic is important, but players should be talented.
The Colorado Avalanche need to clarify the team identity in order to draft, trade and sign well to augment the core.
Core Forwards
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Naturally, part of augmenting the core is evaluating the qualities of those players. Joe Sakic has been adamant that Nathan MacKinnon is an untouchable player, so let’s start with him.
Nathan MacKinnon, Center, 21 years old
Qualities: MacKinnon is good-sized though not overly large. His main claim is speed — no one on the team is considered faster on the straightaway, though it’s said Matt Duchene is faster in rounding the corners. In his rookie season, MacKinnon displayed a lot of agility — he would leap over players trying to check him — but that hasn’t been as much in evidence.
Naturally, MacKinnon is a great stick handler. His defensive play has been coming along, especially since he’s gotten grittier and a little bigger.
Needs: Nathan MacKinnon needs a Chris Kunitz. I don’t mean the player himself — I mean he needs a partner like Kunitz has been to Nate’s buddy Sidney Crosby. This partner doesn’t need to be as speedy as MacK, but he should possess the instinct to get in position to finish whatever play Nate starts.
Jonathan Drouin would have been a natural since they had such chemistry in major juniors, but the price would have been too high. Maybe AJ Greer can become MacK’s Kunitz, or even newbie (to the team) Matt Nieto. Ultimately, the Avs should be on the lookout for someone Nathan finds chemistry with.
Matt Duchene, Center, 25 years old
Qualities: Matt Duchene is so dynamic. It’s not just that he’s fast — it’s that he’s always doing something. He keeps his skates moving. Though not big, he finds a way to protect the puck. And his stick skills — they’re a dream.
Duchene probably has one of the highest, if not the highest, compete levels on the team. However, with that can come an intensity that may occasionally be awkward in the locker room. In fact, he’s known for being more introspective in the locker room. Nonetheless, he’s absolutely a player who leads by example.
Needs: Duchene needs a partner, too, but not a Kunitz. Part of me thinks he needs another Paul Stastny — a visionary, two-way playmaker. Dutchy had that in Ryan O’Reilly, too. Matt’s defense is never going to be his strongest aspect, so a checking forward with stick skills would be good.
The other part of me thinks Duchene needs an Adam Foote. He needs a big, gritty defenseman who makes opponents pay whenever they touch Dutchy. He’s the most dynamic player on the team, so he’s constantly the locus of cheap shots. A mean defender would give him the room to shine. Maybe that could be Duncan Siemens‘ role.
Gabriel Landeskog, Left Wing, 24 years old
Qualities: The Colorado Avalanche captain is a wild one. A true power forward, he’s got a nasty streak that sometimes overshadows his talent. His best scoring comes when he crashes the net.
Though Landeskog can take some bad penalties, one of his greatest qualities is leadership. Here’s where his “soft” side comes out. He’s not about ripping up his teammates but about offering them encouragement. Even in the darkest times he helps them find the fun in hockey.
Needs: I’d say Landeskog’s needs are general team needs. Since he’s willing to crash the net, it’s good if he has players around him who can set up plays. This would help him get out of the scoring slumps he falls prey to.
Acquiring center Martin Hanzal, who’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, without overpaying would be a feather in GM Joe Sakic’s cap. The center is as gritty as Landy and excellent at creating plays.
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The other player that has been deemed untouchable, Mikko Rantanen, is just starting out. He’s actually a really good complement for Gabriel Landeskog. If only they would get more playing time together, they could develop some real chemistry.
Core Defensemen
The Colorado Avalanche blueline is much maligned. It’s targeted as being the reason the shot differential (-165) and goal differential (-52) is so high for Colorado.
The Avalanche have only two defensemen who are considered core.
Erik Johnson, Defenseman, 27 years old
Qualities: Erik Johnson is big and strong. He’s almost impossible to move off the puck. However, one of his greatest strengths is his skating — his long stride makes him very fast. His balance and strength mean he’s even harder to knock off his skates than he is off the puck.
Johnson occasionally has what he calls “pizza moments,” when he makes bad decisions. However, he’s a strong playmaker who sees the ice exceedingly well. He’s also got a bomb of a shot from the point.
Needs: Erik Johnson needs an adequate defensive partner. He’s never really had one since being traded to the Colorado Avalanche. Well, Nikita Zadorov has been placed in that position. The big Russian is still very much learning, so it’s hard to want him for the top pairing because EJ is right in the middle of his prime. (If Nikita could just speed up his development, I love this pairing.)
As with Landeskog, Johnson’s needs are the team’s. In this case, it’d be nice if he was typically on the ice with solid two-way players. All of them could work in concert to move the puck and support each other.
Tyson Barrie, Defenseman, 25 years old
Qualities: Tyson Barrie is billed as a true offensive defenseman. He’s the smallest regular on the team, but he’s just about as dynamic as Matt Duchene. Indeed, I like to call him a rover because he’s always roving around the ice, looking for scoring opportunities.
Unfortunately, with Barrie, defense is the first thing that leaves his game, which is awkward for a defenseman. That said, he’s the Mr. Clutch of the team. Something about the pressure of a ticking down clock suddenly makes Tyson Barrie so much better.
Needs: Tyson Barrie needs a partner who can plug up the holes in defense left by his roving ways. Additionally, a big player is the preference, though strong skating skills are essential as well. However, it’s not good to pair Barrie with a defenseman who likes to jump into the play because that usually results in odd man rushes for the other team.
Karl Alzner, who’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, is an intriguing idea for this job. He’s a big shutdown defenseman currently with the Washington Capitals who can also skate very well. In the Avs system, though, Chris Bigras might be a candidate for partnering Barrie.
General Needs
The Colorado Avalanche, even without blowing up the core, have the opportunity to clean house this offseason. Colorado has six players who will be unrestricted free agents after this season:
- Jarome Iginla, 39 ($5.3 million)
- John Mitchell, 31 ($1.8 million)
- Rene Bourque, 35 ($650,000)
- Andreas Martinsen, 26 ($640,000)
- Fedor Tyutin, 33 ($2 million)
- Cody Goloubef, 27 ($650,000)
They also have five players who will be restricted free agents at the end of the season:
- Mikhail Grigorenko, 22 ($1.3 million)
- Matt Nieto, 24 ($735,000)
- Eric Gelinas, 25 ($1.5 million)
- Nikita Zadorov, 21 ($894,000)
- Patrick Wiercioch, 26 ($750,000)
Potentially, the Colorado Avalanche could let all those guys go. Not only does that open up 11 roster spots, but it frees up almost $17 million. The Colorado Avalanche could use a good chunk of that to get a stud defenseman to partner EJ and a really good defenseman to further shore up the blueline. (Just no one over 30! Learn from your mistakes, Joe.)
From there, they could use the rest for some forward help and let young talents, such as AJ Greer and JT Compher, get their shots in the NHL.
I think it’s more likely the Colorado Avalanche will re-sign at least a couple players. I really don’t see them letting Zadorov go, and Sakic might choose to hold on to the other big piece in the O’Reilly trade, Grigorenko. (He’s have to take a deserved pay cut, though.)
The Avs will probably also keep Wiercioch, which means they’ll let Gelinas go. I’d rather they offer Gelinas a little less money and keep him, but I don’t know if that happens. Nieto might be able to earn a spot in the roster, depending on how he gels with the rest of the team.
Nonetheless, the Avs should still have some money and roster spots available. Let’s say they decide to keep all the players I just mentioned plus augment the blueline as I suggested. That still leaves room for Bigras to come up, and it results in a pretty decent defensive corps:
- Erik Johnson
- Tyson Barrie
- stud defenseman
- really good defenseman (possibly Karl Alzner)
- Nikita Zadorov
- Patrick Wiercioch
- Eric Gelinas
- Chris Bigras
With Gelinas and Bigras as your backup guys, honestly, that’s an improvement over anything we’ve seen on the blueline in a while.
The forward lineup is always a little more fluid. Let’s imagine Greer make the transition to the big team. Here’s what could happen, if the above needs are addressed:
Gabriel Landeskog-Martin Hanzal-Mikko Rantanen
visionary two-way playmaker-Matt Duchene-Carl Soderberg
Kunitz-type player-Nathan MacKinnon-AJ Greer
Blake Comeau-Mikhail Grigorenko-Joe Colborne
Cody McLeod, Matt Nieto
Don’t focus on the order of the first three lines. Instead, think of how awesome it would be to be so stacked offensively that one of the current core players skated on the “third line.”
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I like this plan a lot better than blowing up the core. I also think it’s more what GM Joe Sakic has in mind. However, there’s one other option, and it’s one of expediency. Stud defensemen come at a premium, and they’re rarely exposed in free agency. To get one, the Colorado Avalanche may have to make a single big trade.
We’ll explore that option in the final post of this series.
By Nadia Archuleta for Mile High Sticking