The Avalanche have a simple New Year's resolution

The end of 2025 is near and the Colorado Avalanche have had a strong year, especially since the start of the current season. They lead the league in goals against and goals scored. Nathan MacKinnon is having another phenomenal season, and captain Gabriel Landeskog has been steadily improving as the season wears on. With the Lumberyard in net, there's not much else for the Avalanche to improve on. Well, other than one very simple New Year's resolution - figure out how to score on the power play.

Is it time to start worrying?

The Avalanche currently rank 26th in the league on the power play at a rough 16.0%. This isn't the mark you'd expect on a team with this kind of firepower. The power play has been a significant problem since the team lost to the Dallas Stars in last year's first round playoff exit. So despite these terrible numbers and these woes being established as a continuous problem, is it really time to start worrying?

Head coach Jared Bednar seems to be concerned. After the Avs' latest game against the Los Angeles Kings, Bednar was asked about the power play and its continuing ineffectiveness.
At almost halfway through the season, I'm not quite ready to go into panic mode. They absolutely need to be putting in more work to fix the issue. But like Coach Bednar, I also have faith in this group.

The real problem with the power play

The Avalanche have tried multiple schemes and personnel groups this season, with little results to show for it. I don't think the problem is personnel, though I have questioned some of the choices they've made this season. As far as scheme goes, the only time I've had an issue is when they shifted back to the 1-3-1 pass-happy scheme a few weeks ago.

The most recent group on the top unit has been MacKinnon, Landeskog, Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, and Cale Makar. I've been impressed with the way this group looks as they've had some success in getting set up. They've also done well at putting the puck on net with different looks. The second unit has had little time, though against the Kings, the second unit got looks on each power play.

The game against Los Angeles showed a different look on the power play than the scheme they've been running for about the past month. They moved away from trying to get shots off from the top of the circles and opted to shoot in down low and look for clean up from the big guys down low. They got a lot of good looks, but just weren't able to capitalize against a high-pressure penalty kill from the Kings.

To me, the issue isn't personnel or scheme, it's execution. According to Moneypuck, at 5-on-4, the Avalanche lead the league in shots on goal (200) and are second in shots attempted (289). Last season, they were 23rd in the league in both categories. They're well on pace to break both numbers from last year, so again, it's not the lack of getting the puck to the net. The problem is in the quality of shots on net.

The New Year's resolution

The Avs are struggling to get quality shots on net. Their concentration of shots on the power play is focused around the faceoff circles, particularly MacKinnon's spot, and the middle of the point. Everyone in the world knows the Avalanche are going to try and get the puck to MacKinnon or Necas in the faceoff circles. It's how they've scored a majority of their goals with the man advantage.

The majority of the shots that come from the point are at nearly the direct center of the blueline. The problem here is that the penalty killers can just stack the middle. This allows them to easily block shots and clog the slot.

I've seen quite a few comments in the social world that say MacKinnon is the problem and that they should take him off the top unit for a few games. A reality check, I suppose. I don't think he's the issue, I think it's more about Cale Makar. I don't think he's the one to blame, necessarily, but he's been a nonfactor with the man advantage. The opposition has keyed in on Makar all year to prevent him from having space to work along the blueline. This basically eliminates him as a threat and forces the Avs to operate from low danger areas of the ice.

The Avalanche's New Year's resolution should be to find a way to get Makar more involved. It could be that they move him to one of the forward spots and push Necas or Nelson up high to man the point. Or they could create more movement by allowing him to drive the puck in deep and make plays down low. I am calling for MacKinnon to be less involved on the power play. Really, this team should be innovative and creative with the talent on the roster.

One thing is for sure: The Avalanche definitely need to find a way to address the power play before it becomes an issue that costs them wins. It is an absolute imperative that the Avs get this figured out before the playoffs or else they may be doomed for another early postseason exit.