The Colorado Avalanche have been pretty quiet on the NHL rumor front this season. While a loose link to Connor Hellebuyck stirred up a storm for a while, the Avs were nowhere near that one.
There has also been some chatter surrounding Dylan Larkin, as Colorado surfaces as one of his preferred destinations.
Like Hellebuyck, Larkin isn’t anywhere close to happening.
But there might be something more plausible on the horizon. Given the recent Josh Manson injury, the Avalanche could be looking to see what’s out there in the defense market.
According to a predictive analytics model employed for this article, the Avs have a 65% chance of exploring a defensive upgrade.
Now, that doesn’t mean a high probability of a trade. That number drops to about 25%. But what the analytics show is that the Avs are going to see what’s out there, particularly given the circumstances facing the team.
Noah Juulsen will be the key to an Avalanche trade
The entire conversation regarding a trade for a defenseman hinges on Noah Juulsen. The Avalanche are down to six defensemen at this point. And since the club did not call anyone up from the Eagles following Manson’s injury, Juulsen will be the guy until something happens or not.
That’s just the thing. If Juulsen thrives, the likelihood of a trade would fall significantly. But if Juulsen struggles, that’s where things could get really interesting. The organization may need to figure out if there’s a need for an additional defenseman to either cover until Manson returns, or serve as insurance moving forward.
Make no mistake. This isn’t going to be a massive trade for someone like Quinn Hughes. This would be a depth move aimed at providing injury insurance should anyone else go down this season.
Juulsen is supposed to be that insurance
Now, the immediate reaction to that final point would be, “Isn’t Juulsen supposed to be that insurance?”
Indeed, that’s the case. The Avalanche signed him this past summer precisely to fill in during times such as these.
As long as he can hold his head above water, the pressure to find another solution won’t be there. But should Juulsen become a weak link, the pressure will grow on Joe Sakic to do something.
Perhaps we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. The predictive analytics model reflects the lack of pressure at the moment. The model, however, is clear insofar as there being a possible need for a deal, motivating Sakic to keep an ace up his sleeve.
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