The Colorado Avalanche have the best shot to win the Stanley Cup. That should be no surprise to anyone who follows hockey even casually.
The fine people at MoneyPuck have gone about the business of compiling playoff probabilities and Stanley Cup championship odds. Unsurprisingly, the Avalanche are tops in the league. MoneyPuck shows the Avalanche are the top team in the NHL, with a 95.7% of making the playoffs.
At this point, even in early November, the Avalanche look like a shoo-in to hit the postseason. Of course, plenty of things can change. But unless the wheels completely come off the Avalanche’s season, we can infer the club is in a pretty good spot to make the postseason.
But MoneyPuck takes things one step further. The Avalanche have a 57.7% chance to make the second round. Now, that’s an interesting assessment. If the playoffs started today, the Avalanche would face the LA Kings in the first round. The Avs are the top seed in the Western Conference, with the Kings holding the second wild card spot.
Such a first-round series would be an entertaining one, especially since the Avalanche would not face the Dallas Stars, nor would the Kings take on the Edmonton Oilers in the first round.
MoneyPuck gives the Avalanche a 32.3% chance of making the third round. That’s about half a percentage point behind the top team, the Vegas Golden Knights.
Making the third round would be interesting for the Avalanche as they would face the winner of the Winnipeg Jets-Utah Mammoth first-round series. The winner of that series could be a tough out for the Avalanche. But we can reasonably assume the Avalanche will get through them and potentially face the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Final.
Colorado Avalanche have best chance to make Stanley Cup Final
If the Western Conference Final came down to a showdown between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche, the Avalanche would have the edge, according to MoneyPuck. The Avs top the list at 18.5% with the Golden Knights right behind at 17.5%.
Such odds mean that the series could go either way. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an Avs-Knights tilt go to seven games.
Lastly, MoneyPuck assumes the Avalanche will make it to the Stanley Cup Final. If we look at the Eastern Conference team with the best odds to make the Final, the Avalanche would take on the Carolina Hurricanes.
Yes, the same team the Avalanche faced, posing as the Hartford Whalers. That game was an entertaining one, and a potential preview of this year’s Stanley Cup Final.
MoneyPuck’s projections culminate with the Avalanche getting a 10.2% chance of winning the Cup. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have just a 7.9% probability.
All of these numbers come with a grain of salt. We’re about 15 games into the season, and well, that’s an extremely small sample size. There’s not enough data to make a statistically valid analysis of the situation.
But then again, if we take this conversation up again around Thanksgiving, the data could be much more convincing. Here’s hoping the Avalanche remain atop the playoff probabilities in about four weeks’ time.