The upcoming NHL free agent season was expected to be a wild one with some of the best players in the league potentially available. Two of those names, Edmonton's Connor McDavid and Minnesota's Kirill Kaprizov have signed extensions with their teams. While they are no longer part of that club of potential free agents, there are multiple players still on that list, including Adrian Kempe, Kyle Connor, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Alex Tuch, and Colorado's own Martin Necas.
There has been much debate about why the Avalanche and GM Chris MacFarland haven't come to terms yet with Martin Necas. Rumors have flown around, whether it's about Necas being unhappy in Colorado or the team and his camp being far apart on the money. In today's press conference, MacFarland was asked about the Necas situation in regards to Kaprizov and McDavid, and his response was promising saying he wanted to get it done and that he wasn't worried about it.
What impact do McDavid and Kaprizov's extensions have on negotiations?
With that many names potentially available and the salary cap rising, the market was going to be reset. The first domino to fall was Kirill Kaprizov, who signed a massive eight-year, $17 million AAV deal, making him the highest paid player in NHL history. Next, Connor McDavid signed, and it was a bit of a surprise to everyone, as he only signed a two-year extension with a $12.5 million AAV. That's actually $100k less than Nathan MacKinnon, who's deal continues to look like a steal as the seasons go on.
The Kaprizov deal inflated the market and we've yet to see if the McDavid deal let a bit of the air out. I really don't think either of these contracts have much bearing on the contract negotiations the Avs are facing with Necas. The Kaprizov deal is an outlier as it seems everyone, including Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin, acknowledge the deal seems a little too rich. Even the McDavid deal is an outlier, it comes with clear implications for both Edmonton and McDavid that a Stanley Cup is of the utmost importance.
Martin Necas is not quite the same caliber player as Kaprizov or McDavid, so how will these new extensions affect negotiations? Prior to McDavid's contract, the thinking was that Kaprizov's inflated contract would drive the asking prices for the remaining free agents up. That certainly seems to be the case with Necas. The rumors I've seen put Necas's camp at around $11.5 or $12 million, while the Avs are looking at closer to $10.5 million. I think the Avs value for him is the correct value, right now. However, I think they should pay him what he wants now, before it's too late.
Other free agent deals will have more impact
McDavid and Kaprizov aren't really good comparables to Necas. However, Alex Tuch in Buffalo, Adrian Kempe in Los Angeles, and Kyle Connor are much more in his class, and they're also all extension eligible. Kempe and Connor are both rumored to be asking for around $12 million, while Tuch should be getting $10 million. I think Necas is better than Tuch and Kempe, but not quite as proven as Connor.
If either Kempe or Tuch end up signing a deal at or north of $12 million, there's no doubt that Necas's asking price is going to go up. Connor signing at that price isn't quite as impactful, but should absolutely keep Necas' asking price where it is. MacFarland has already fallen out of favor with some fans after last season's failed contract negotiations and trade of Mikko Rantanen last season. He can ill afford to make another mistake with Necas.