It goes without saying that Alexander Ovechkin is one of the greatest players in NHL history. The same goes for Colorado Avalanche star forward Nathan MacKinnon. However, what could be a surprise for most fans of the Avalanche is that it would take MacKinnon a long time if he were to reach the all-time goal record Ovechkin just passed Wayne Gretzky for.
With five games left for the Washington Capitals, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ovechkin even extends his lead in the overall goals category. MacKinnon’s Avalanche have four games remaining on their 2024-25 regular season schedule.
MacKinnon is currently at 367 career goals in 869 games. If you divide the 369 goals by how long MacKinnin has been in the league (12 years), you get 30.5 goals per season. Let’s assume the number is rounded up to 31. If MacKinnon keeps up the pace of 31 goals per season over the course of a 20-year NHL career, he’d finish with 612 goals for his career. That’s well short of the record of 895. Additionally, he is on a .42 goals per game pace right now.
Obviously, that isn’t taking anything away from MacKinnon. There are a lot of factors that go into the accumulation of goals. In the 2022-23 season, MacKinnon played in 38 games in which he didn’t score a goal. In 10 of those games, he had at least one assist.
As it stands now, MacKinnon is ranked 143rd all-time in terms of goals in a career. Here’s a fun fact for you: former Avalanche Matt Duchene has 370 goals in his career. He has played in 1,133 games compared to MacKinnon’s 869—a difference of 264 games. It is just fascinating the types of paths a player’s career can take. The Avalanche took Duchene third overall in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft while taking MacKinnon as the first overall pick in 2013.
MacKinnon turns 30 years old later this year. If he hopes to surpass Ovechkin in the goal category all-time, he will have to pick up his game going forward. Even if he doesn’t come close to the record, MacKinnon will still be one of the top players in Colorado Avalanche history. Nothing will take that away from him.
He has many trophies, including the Stanley Cup and the Hart, but fans might have to come to the realization that MacKinnon is far away from being the all-time goal scorer in NHL history.