We’ve spent the bulk of the offseason so far trying to figure out what went wrong for the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Final against the Vegas Golden Knights.
While it was evident that several key Colorado players were banged up, especially Cale Makar, the Avalanche are so deep that they should have had a fighting chance to advance. But it just seems that the Golden Knights had luck on their side.
That’s not some simplistic argument due to a lack of sophisticated understanding. There’s actually data to back up that assertion.
A new study published on the luckiest teams in the NHL revealed that the team with the most puck-luck this postseason has been, you guessed it, the Vegas Golden Knights.
The study revealed that the Golden Knights have an 89.1% Puck-Puck Score. The score measures crucial indicators like shooting percentage, save percentage, goals above expected, goals prevented above expected, goal differential, and expected goal differential.
Over the course of a short series, getting a couple of extra saves and one fortuitous bounce here or there are enough to propel one team over another. Over an entire season, puck-luck isn’t sustainable.
That’s why the Avalanche won the Presidents’ Trophy while Vegas was able to make it out of the Western Conference side of the bracket.
As for the Avalanche, they had a 49.1% Puck-Luck Score. In other words, assuming that bounces are 50-50, the Avs didn’t get the breaks going their way in less than half the time.
Meanwhile, Utah and Anaheim had 37.9% and 24.5% Puck-Luck Scores, respectively. As such, the Golden Knights have just been fortunate enough to get more of the bounces going their way.
It seems like it’s one of those postseasons in which the hockey gods have favored one club over another.
Avalanche didn’t fare much better in NHL Luck Index
The Avalanche didn’t fare much better in another “luck” indicator. The NHL Luck Index, an indicator which measures how often fortunate events help teams win, showed the Golden Knights topping the list with a score of 86.0. Meanwhile, Colorado scored 60.0
When looking back at the series, it actually makes sense. There were several instances in which the Avs hit posts or crossbars, and pucks just didn’t go in. There were a couple of goals that might not have otherwise gone in, but they did.
Even the empty-netters went Vegas’ way. It was just that kind of a series. While it’s tough to justify luck in all four wins, you would have to think that “luck” was enough to earn Vegas one or two extra wins.
And that was enough to turn the series into a sweep. If Colorado had gotten at least a couple of those bounces going their way, the series could have ended up going to six or even seven.
Does that mean Colorado would have advanced?
Not necessarily. But at least the series would not have been a sweep. We’ll never know. The only thing we do know is that Vegas is currently playing for its second championship in franchise history.
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