The first-round matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars had been in the cards for a long time. The Winnipeg Jets closed off all chances to win the Central Division, while both the Stars and Avalanche were far too good for wild card spots.
As such, there was little doubt past the 4 Nations Face-Off break that it would be Dallas and Colorado in the first round. The only lingering doubt was who would finish with home-ice advantage.
That question was answered as the Stars finished second in the division, nabbing home-ice advantage, at least in the first round.
So, let’s dive into a preview of what looks to be the best first-round series in the 2025 NHL playoffs. While it will certainly be a fantastic series, it will be sad to see one of the top Stanley Cup contenders go home in the first round.
Avalanche vs Stars: First-round series preview
Overview
The Colorado Avalanche went through a mini-retool this season. The opening-day tandem of Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen was replaced by MacKenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. Both netminders have been terrific this season.
The Blackwood-Wedgewood tandem helped the Avs turn an 0-4 start into a solid season. Then, the additions of Jack Drury, Brock Nelson, Martin Necas, and Ryan Lindgren went a long way toward helping mold the current roster into a powerhouse.
But the biggest storyline this season was the Mikko Rantanen trade. Rantanen, who was set to become a free agent, overplayed his hand in Colorado. So, the Avs instead of losing him for nothing, shipped him to Carolina. That situation became a fiasco, prompting the Hurricanes to trade Rantanen to the Dallas Stars.
And so here we are.
In an ironic twist of fate, Mikko Rantanen is now a member of the Dallas Stars. He hasn’t been the game-breaking star the team hoped he would be. But he has the potential to become a significant piece in this first-round series.
Overall, Dallas’ depth, combined with their suffocating defensive play, could prove to be too much for Avalanche’s juggernaut offense to overcome. But if the Avs can leverage their speed, skill, and solid defense, the Stars could be in for a tough series.
I foresee this series going the distance. I would be shocked if either team wrapped up this series in less than six games.
Regular-season series
The Colorado Avalanche won the regular-season series with the Dallas Stars 2-1. The Avs lost the first game 5-3 on November 29, 2024. Then, the Avs won a convincing 6-3 game on January 18 and followed that up with a thrilling 4-3 overtime win on March 16.
It’s fair to say that neither team dominated in all three games. The contests were back-and-forth affairs in which one team ultimately prevailed. If that trend continues this time around, we could be in for a long, drawn-out series that could feature more than one overtime game.
It’s worth noting that Cale Makar was key in all three games against the Stars. Makar had two assists in the 5-3 loss, scored twice in the 6-3 win, and scored the game-winner in the overtime game.
So, stopping Makar could be high on the Stars’ priority list for this upcoming series. But if the Stars focus on stopping Makar, Devon Toews could be poised to play a big role from the blue line. Keep an eye out for that.
Colorado Avalanche's biggest strengths
There is no question that the Avalanche’s biggest strength is its high-end offense. Nathan MacKinnon is an unstoppable force that will make life nearly impossible for the Stars. Dallas will have to find a way to stop MacKinnon without their number-one defenseman Miro Heiskanen. That situation could mean overworking Esa Lindell and Thomas Harley.
If the Stars do shutdown MacKinnon, Brock Nelson’s line will need to step up and take over. With Nelson likely centering Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin, there will be no shortage of firepower there.
Don’t underestimate the third line of Charlie Coyle with Joel Kiviranta and Ross Colton. We know Colton can score, plus he’s a Swiss Army knife. Kiviranta is a little engine that could, with Coyle being one of the best all-around centers in the league.
I think this line could be the X-factor for Colorado, especially if the top six run into trouble.
On defense, the Toews-Makar pair is set in stone. It will be great to see Samuel Girard and Josh Manson back in the fold. In the third pair, it seems Erik Johnson will join Ryan Lindgren. This arrangement squeezes out Sam Malinski, who’s had a tremendous year.
My thought is that Johnson gets into the lineup as the Avalanche will need more physicality on the blue line. Johnson provides that. Similarly, we could see Keaton Middleton if things get a little rough-and-tumble.
I don’t think the series will go that way, but it could be something to keep in mind.
The biggest question for the Colorado Avalanche
The biggest question will be goaltending. MacKenzie Blackwood has provided Vezina-worthy numbers, but he hasn’t played in the postseason yet. That situation raises some question marks about how well he could play this series.
In my estimation, I don’t foresee that being a problem. Blackwood should continue this season’s trend, making him a solid option in the crease.
As for Scott Wedgewood, he’s a proven netminder. He’ll be there to spell Blackwood if it comes to that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wedgewood get the call if Blackwood needs a break at some point in the series.
Again, that doesn’t appear to be the case, but that’s the luxury of having a competent backup goaltender. The Avs will be looking to ride Blackwood in this series. If the showdown does go the distance, it’s likely Wedgewood gets at least one start somewhere to give Blackwood a break. We shall see if that’s indeed the case.
Conclusion
The Colorado Avalanche have everything they need to get past the Dallas Stars. It won’t be an easy series by any means. Still, the Avalanche have the firepower, defense, and goaltender to ensure they make it past the first round and avenge last season’s second-round defeat.