The Colorado Avalanche are the clear-cut favorites to win the 2026 Stanley Cup. That’s hardly a shock to anyone paying attention this season.
As for Avalanche fans, that’s like a choir of angels singing.
A recent study conducted by casino.org surveyed various prediction platforms and sportsbooks to determine the odds of winning the Stanley Cup this season. Unsurprisingly, the Avalanche topped the list with 20.03% of taking home the bacon.
The highest individual prediction market gave the Avalanche a 22% probability of winning the Cup. Meanwhile, analytics site MoneyPuck gave the Avs just a 16% chance. Still, that’s one point higher than the second-place club, the Tampa Bay Lightning, of taking home the Cup.
Overall, the Lightning got a 14.02% chance of winning, while the Carolina Hurricanes came in third with a 13.08% chance.
Those figures clearly put the Avalanche head and shoulders above everyone else. The odds, as they stand, show Colorado has a 1 in 5 chance of winning the playoffs. That’s not bad at all.
Odds signal to Avalanche-Lightning rematch
If we go by probabilities alone, the figures show the Avalanche could be on a collision course with the Lightning in a rematch of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
That season, the Lightning were coming off back-to-back championships. The Bolts made the Cup final one more time, but ended up succumbing to the uber-talented Avs in six games. If that were the case, the Lightning would face an even tougher Avalanche lineup than they did in 2022.
But if we look at this year’s season series, the Avalanche and Lightning split their two games. The Avs won on November 4 by a score of 3-2 in Florida. The Lightning got the other game by a 4-2 score at Ball Arena.
Judging by the season series, a Stanley Cup rematch between the Avalanche and Lightning could be a close one. But there really isn’t much evidence to suggest the Lightning could get past the Avalanche.
Sure, the Lightning still have an elite core. But so do the Avalanche. And when comparing depth, Colorado has a decisive edge over Tampa Bay.
The Eastern Conference side of the 2026 NHL playoff bracket will be a tough one to figure out. Regardless of who makes it out of the East, they will have one heck of a time against the Avalanche.
The Avs kick off their first-round series against the LA Kings at Ball Arena on Sunday. Colorado will be looking to get off to a strong start to set the tone for the remainder of the postseason.
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