This offseason’s trade of Valeri Nichushkin was a bit of a mild surprise on the part of the Colorado Avalanche. While Nichushkin’s name had been out there for a little while, no one really expected the Avalanche to move this fast.
But they did.
Joe Sakic preyed on the Columbus Blue Jackets’ desperation to make moves to appease star defenseman Zach Werenski to remain with the club. So far, the approach seems to have worked.
But what surprised Avalanche fans the most was the relatively paltry return for Nichushkin: A 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 third-round selection, and a 2028 fifth-rounder. Some fans would have expected a prospect or roster player in return.
The move was clearly a cap dump, and there’s a clear reason why.
A study by Rotowire looked at the top risers and fallers in the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs. While some players like former Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen emerged as heroes, some didn’t.
That was the case of Nichushkin. According to the data, Nichushkin registered a -1.07 Surprise Score in the data set. For comparison’s sake, Philadelphia Flyers forward Matvei Michkov topped the data set at -1.70.
The Surprise Score essentially measures regular-season performance compared to postseason output. And Nichushkin just didn’t make the cut. The analytics show that Nichushkin had a 0.35 point per game decline in the postseason, with a -7.2 relative Corsi, and -2.1 minutes of ice time.
Yes, it was the decline in ice time that seemed the most noticeable in the postseason. Nichushkin was less visible as the postseason wore on.
Those numbers set up a perfect storm for Sakic to pull the trigger.
Avalanche got the best deal possible for Nichushkin
These numbers I just described are not classified. They’re not top-secret information that only the government has access to. Other organizations can see what the underlying analytics are on just about any player in the league.
And that’s why the Avalanche made the deal when they did. While it would have been nice to get a first-round pick or a decent prospect, the fact is that no one was going to pay more for Nichushkin.
Sakic knew this. He also knew that the Blue Jackets stood to lose several regulars from this past season’s lineup. As such, the club wanted to find a serviceable replacement. The move was also about sending a message that the Blue Jackets weren’t going to stand around trying to figure out what to do.
They were going to make a move to show the fan base, the players, and, most importantly, Werenski, that they’re serious about competing next season.
So, Sakic pushed the button.
The optics of the deal weren’t all that great. But when you consider the re-signings and additions the club made, it seems like everything will work out in the end.
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