In an interesting piece in The Athletic, resident analytics guru Dom Luszczyszyn compiled a list of UFAs teams should avoid. Some of the names aren’t surprising. For instance, Luszczyszyn warned about overpaying for players like Jacob Trouba and Scott Laughton.
But one name that seemed mildly surprising was Brett Kulak. Now, Colorado Avalanche fans know that Kulak was solid during the postseason. That’s an assessment that Luszczyszyn rightfully makes about the 32-year-old blueliner.
His contention, nonetheless, hinges on the fact that Kulak hasn’t been all that consistent during the regular season. His time in Edmonton and Pittsburgh last season didn’t overly flatter his performance.
That’s why there’s a warning label attached to Kulak. According to projections, the veteran blueliner should net $4 AAV over a three-year pact. Frankly, I agree that’s way too much. It’s not that Kulak isn’t a good defenseman. It’s just that such a cap hit is a little onerous for a player who looks like a third-pairing option.
To be fair, the playoff Kulak we saw seemed like a legit top-four defenseman. He could very well play a shutdown role alongside Josh Manson, or anchor a pairing with a more offensive-minded player like Sam Malinski or Brent Burns.
The word of caution is that team should pay naught more than Kulak’s cap hit this past season. The former Oilers/Penguins blueliner made $2.75 million. And honestly, he should get $4 million AAV on the open market. There are enough desperate teams out there willing to pay that much, or even more.
That may be no bueno for the Avalanche this offseason. If Kulak has his heart set on getting the best possible payday, he may have well priced himself out of Colorado. The Avalanche won’t want to splurge on a middle to bottom-pairing defenseman in light of their cap situation.
While there’s always a chance the Kulak decides to take a pay cut to stay in Colorado, that’s no guarantee. It’s not often that players have a chance to become free agents in seasons when the market is thin.
So, the best guess here is that Kulak will test the market. If a team out there is willing to pay up, Joe Sakic may have no choice but to let Kulak walk this summer.
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