The Colorado Avalanche find themselves down 2-1 in their round one playoff series against the Dallas Stars. The big question is how the Avalanche got to this point.
There are a number of issues we could point out. The suddenly dormant powerplay is easily the biggest problem. Going 0-for-6 is how you lose games, especially in the playoffs. I think another major problem for the Avalanche is the lack of production from the middle six. I also believe that the physical style play we've seen in the series has affected the offensive side of things.
Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar seemed to have a major weapon on his side that no other coach in the postseason had: depth AND a healthy roster. Coming into the Stanley Cup Finals he had a solid 15 forwards and eight defensemen that could crack the lineup. Then you add Gabriel Landeskog into the equation and there's a lot of options here. Bednar has kept his gameday lineups very quiet leading up to game time. He even played mind games with the Stars and Pete DeBoer (and us fans too) when Landeskog was listed in the pregame lineup for game two, but he played Miles Wood instead.
So with such a deep roster, why is the team struggling so much offensively?
Looking at the middle six through the first three games
The official lineups have had a few different line combinations through three games, so let's take a look at the second and third lines from each game. Keep in mind that in the last two games, even the top line has been smothered by Dallas.
Game 1 / Line 2 | Jonathan Drouin | Brock Nelson | Valeri Nichushkin |
|---|---|---|---|
Game 1 / Line 3 | Joel Kiviranta | Charlie Coyle | Ross Colton |
Game 2 / Line 2 | Jonathan Drouin | Brock Nelson | Valeri Nichushkin |
Game 2 / Line 3 | Joel Kiviranta | Charlie Coyle | Miles Wood |
Game 3 / Line 2 | Artturi Lehkonen | Brock Nelson | Valeri Nichushkin |
Game 3 / Line 3 | Gabriel Landeskog | Charlie Coyle | Joel Kiviranta |
Obviously, the centers are going to remain the same (though I'd be interested to see Charlie Coyle get a crack at the 2C spot), but we've got wingers galore here. Nichushkin is a mainstay, in the top six, and is the driver for the second line, so I like him where he is. Drouin has been pretty much invisible, and I don't just mean offensively. He's usually great with puck possession and making smart plays that lead to offensive opportunities, even if it doesn't translate to points for him. He hasn't been doing that. The current projected game four lineup has Drouin slotted down to the third line and Landeskog moved up to the second.
A couple more things to point out here: Ross Colton got hurt in game one and that's a big loss for us as he's a solid contributor on the third line. I absolutely love the Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood connection we got at the end of the season, but it didn't seem to work for us in game two. I probably like Kiviranta as much as Coach Bednar does, but he's streaky. And right now, he's on a cold streak.
Of these players, the Avalanche have gotten a single goal from three of these players: Lehkonen, Nichushkin, and Coyle. In addition, Drouin has two assists and Lehkonen has one. That's six total points out of your middle six. Nelson and Kiviranta have failed to find the scoresheet, as well as Landeskog, Colton, and Wood though each of them has only played in one game so far.
This is just not good enough, especially in the postseason.
How the Avalanche can address the middle six's offensive woes
It can't be as simple as mixing up the lines, can it? Bednar put his lines through the blender for the last 10 or so games of the season, so shouldn't he have something that works? I think there's more than just the right line combinations, but it's definitely a place to start. Here are the lines I propose for the Avalanche to fix the offensive drought and to get specific guys going, like Nelson and Necas.
Artturi Lehkonen | Nathan MacKinnon | Valeri Nichushkin |
|---|---|---|
Gabriel Landeskog | Brock Nelson | Martin Necas |
Jonathan Drouin | Charlie Coyle | Logan O'Connor |
Parker Kelly | Jack Drury | Jimmy Vesey |
The middle six gains Martin Necas and loses Valeri Nichushkin. I made this switch because I think the top line with Nichushkin can get Lehkonen going. Also, with Necas on the top line, it's a little small. The second line is a slight gamble. Here we are hoping that Landeskog can be the piece that gets both Nelson and Necas producing. I really wanted to swap Nelson and Coyle, because in the regular season with the Avalanche, both Coyle and Nelson had 13 points in 19 games. Nelson is also the only center under 50% on faceoffs, but I'll give him one more shot at 2C with Landy and Necas.
Drouin drops to the third line, but I think this is a good spot for him against Dallas. Coyle is a big center who has great playmaking skills and Logan O'Connor's hard working game could really complement Drouin's game. Coyle's veteran presence and faceoff winning prowess are also extremely important in the playoffs. O'Connor is currently tied for the team lead in points with MacK. His hot hand might help Drouin find his game, as well.
Since I broke up my elite fourth line, I added in Vesey because he hasn't had a shot yet and I think his veteran presence and defensive game will matchup well against the Stars. I think Miles Wood is too much of a liability for penalties and as I said before, Kivi is having the cold streak right now. The other thing Vesey has going for him is size. The fourth line is small, even with LOC.
Utilizing these lines effectively against the Stars is key
Naturally, the Avalanche can't just throw any set of lines out there and think everything is going to be all better. They have to execute. The Stars gameplan has been to shut down the Avalanche defensemen as much as possible. The forwards are going to have to step up and carry the load.
The major theme through these lines is there's a bit of size to each line. Dallas is big and they've smothered the Avalanche in the last two games. Nichushkin adds more size to the top line. Nelson and Landy balance out Necas. Coyle and Vesey are the only big guys in the bottom six. Drouin is the only forward here that really stands out as someone who could get pushed around.
The Avalanche have done well playing against the Stars and matching their physicality. The problem is that they don't usually play this physical brand of hockey and getting back into the offensive mindset can be a slog. The Avs must figure out how to transition from the physical game on the forecheck and into quality chances around the net. The Stars kept the Avalanche from the front of the net as much as they could in game three. The lone goal from Nichushkin came on a play where he created space right in front of Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger.
Game four certainly feels like a must win. It also feels like the team just has to wake itself back up. They've looked like the better team for much of the game and are playing the defensive game just as well as Dallas is. Hopefully the team can play big in front of the net and get the offense rolling again.