Talk of a Cale Makar extension this summer should send chills down the Colorado Avalanche’s spine. The potential cascading effect that the final number could have on the team’s roster may shift the club’s roster construction.
That’s why the three potential scenarios that could play out may have far-reaching consequences for the organization.
In reality, there are three ways this situation could play out. Two would significantly benefit the Avalanche, with one becoming potentially catastrophic.
Let’s get the worst-case scenario out of the way. The Makar extension comes in around $16 to $18 million AAV. Makar says to Colorado, “I want to get paid,” and the Avs will have no other choice but to do it.
It’s either that or trade Makar at some point next season before he hits free agency. Needless to say, trading Makar would likely unleash a tsumani in Colorado unless someone like Quinn Hughes came back in the deal.
The other two scenarios, however, are far more optimistic.
Makar extension comes in at far lower number
Let’s assume that the Makar extension comes in at a much lower number, say, around Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6 million AAV cap hit.
That number would still be a decent pay bump for Makar. While the term would likely be much lower, the number would be highly manageable for the Avalanche. Even if Makar signed for three or four years at that figure, the “break” would help the organization remain competitive for the foreseeable future.
This situation is the likeliest point where a Makar extension would fall. It seems unlikely that Makar would take Colorado to the cleaners, especially after coming so close to breaking through this season.
Plus, a number in this range would remain consistent with MacKinnon’s $12.6 million hit and Martin Necas’ $11.5 million cap hit. That’s why a number in between MacKinnon and Necas would be the right one.
Makar pulls a “McDavid”
There’s a third potential scenario, albeit a relatively unlikely one. Makar could pull a McDavid and sign a two-year deal at the same cap hit he had in his previous contract. That would mean Makar signing something like a two-year deal worth $18 to $20 million.
Such a deal would essentially punt the discussion, giving the organization time to figure out its next moves, while also providing the team with the resources it needs to succeed.
Such a contract would say to Colorado that the clock is ticking. If the team can’t win another Cup in the next two seasons, then the next time this conversation comes around, the situation could be significantly different.
For starters, the cap will be much higher in three years. PuckPedia projects the cap to hit $123 million in 2028-29. That is a much higher number than next season’s $104 million cap ceiling.
Should the Avalanche fail to win within that time frame, the calculus could change dramatically. Makar could come back and say, “I gave you two years, now it’s time to pay up.”
If Colorado isn’t a serious Cup contender in two or three seasons (kind of what’s happening in Edmonton), the Avalanche may have to think about trading Makar, and MacKinnon, for that matter.
If I had to bet, I’d actually put my money on this third scenario. Makar and the Avalanche are so eager to win another Cup. If they could, they would just fast-forward the entire regular season and skip to next year’s playoffs.
After coming close this season, there’s no question the desire to win will be even greater next season.
Add us as a preferred source on Google