It's hard to believe that Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar hasn't yet hit his ceiling, given the accolades he's earned and the records he's broken across just five and a half seasons in the NHL, but this current season is setting a new bar for the right-shot defenseman. Despite breakout and breakthrough years for a number of the league's best rearguards, Makar is the current, odds-on favorite to win the Norris Trophy this year.
The Case for Cale Makar
Offensively, Cale Makar is in a league of his own, unmatched in almost every offensive statistical category for defensemen league-wide:
Cale Makar's Offensive Stats through 43 Games | League Ranking for Defensemen |
|---|---|
Goals (13) | T-1st |
Assists (36) | 2nd |
Points (49) | 1st |
Power Play Goals (6) | 1st |
Game-Winning Goals (3) | T-1st |
Shooting Percentage - 85 SoG Minimum (9.9%) | 1st |
Time on Ice | 3rd |
Each year, there's a debate over whether or not offense statistics should factor so heavily into picking an award-winner for a trophy meant to reward the defensive position, but there's something to be said for the addage that the best defense is a good offense, and, while Makar is often lauded for his offensive talent and brilliant edge-work on the opposing blueline, he's equally gifted as a shutdown defenseman; he is routinely matched up against the league's best players and is entrusted to regularly contain fellow Central Division stars like Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Jason Robertson, Filip Forsberg, and more.
Defensively speaking, Makar's statistics aren't ranked amongst the top-five in most categories, but the players who are the league-leaders defensively are not relied upon for their offensive game. Weighed alongside his offensive prowess, there simply isn't a single other defenseman in the NHL who contributes as much as he does to his team's success. It's for this very reason that Makar is also currently listed in the top-10 for most odds-on Hart Trophy predictions for MVP. Who, then, could challenge Makar in his quest for a second Norris Trophy? Two names stand apart from the rest of the NHL's elite defensemen: Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks and Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Case for Cale Makar Over Zach Werenski
In a season where expectations were set aside and no one would've blamed them for stagnating, the Columbus Blue Jackets currently hold the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. While much of the team's success is due to Sean Monahan's well-documented perseverance and resilience this season, it is Zach Werenski's career year — and his 48 points in 42 games — that has placed the Blue Jackets in contention.
In nearly every category, Werenski has led the Blue Jackets' offense, especially amongst his fellow D-men. The next-highest points-getter on the Blue Jackets' defense is Ivan Provorov, who has 14 in 42 games. While this is laudable, and while Werenski's play has been elite, his defensive metrics are lacking. According to JFresh Hockey's most recent player analytics, when Zach Werenski is on the ice, the Blue Jacket's projected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) holds at 14% out of a possible 100%. Simply put: 86% of the rest of the league's defense corps is better at preventing goals than Zach Werenski. Cale Makar currently ranks in the 93rd percentile.
There's a case to be made, every year as media pundits and gambling odds-makers begin predicting end-of-season statistics, that a player who practically wills their team into a playoff spot should receive special attention during awards season. Werenski, who has already tied his second-best points total of his career and is on pace for 94 points this year, will almost certainly be nominated for the Norris Trophy for his offensive efforts, but his lackluster defensive numbers, especially compared against those of Cale Makar, will keep him from genuinely challenging for the honor of Defenseman of the Year.
The Case for Cale Makar Over Quinn Hughes
There has been much turmoil in Vancouver this year, but Quinn Hughes has been a steady, surefire presence on the back-end for the Canucks. He's their captain: he's a calming, quiet leader both on the ice and in the locker room, and they need that desperately this year. While both the Avalanche and the Blue Jackets have other players who have similar offensive output, Hughes' 45 points in 37 games stands alone atop the Canucks' leaderboards. The next closest to him is Connor Garland, who has 30 points in 41 games.
While both the Avalanche and the Blue Jackets have other players who have similar offensive output, Hughes' 45 points in 37 games stands alone atop the Canucks' leaderboards. The next closest to him is Connor Garland, who has 30 points in 41 games.
In terms of WAR, Hughes has a small edge over Makar, with his overall numbers being in the 100th-percentile, with Makar currently sitting at the 93rd. But these statistics don't paint the whole picture unless looked at contextually. Makar spends significantly more time in high-danger situations like penalty kills; Makar has spent 98+ minutes on the PK, whereas Hughes has only spent 6 minutes on the ice when a man down. Essentially, Makar is trusted in this pivotal special teams role far more than Hughes is, and it has an inordinate, negative impact on his overall WAR.
Ultimately, the Norris race will be a close one, with Makar and Hughes setting new standards and revolutionizing the defensive position and Werenski leading Columbus to its first instance of even holding a Wild Card spot in almost a decade. But, when looked at holistically, Makar's utilization, offensive output, and defensive capabilities set him alone as the league’s best defenseman.
Analytics and player data provided by JFresh Hockey