The Colorado Avalanche gave up one of their best players, Matt Duchene, for an impressive haul. But as he hits free agency, could we get him back?
The Colorado Avalanche and center Matt Duchene have parted ways. Though the parting wasn’t overly contentious, it was awkward. Duchene asked for the trade, and the team waited almost a year — and then traded him in the middle of a game.
In the trade, the Avalanche got one guaranteed good player — our Whirling Dervish, Samuel Girard. We also got some lottery tickets:
- Forward Vladislav Kamenev (missed almost two full seasons with different injuries)
- Forward Shane Bowers (joined the Colorado Eagles late last season)
- 2018 second-round pick, traded for third-rounder (Justus Annunen) and fifth rounder (Danila Zhuravlyov)
- 2019 first-rounder (fourth-overall) and third-rounder (#63)
Plus, goalie Andrew Hammond won one playoff game for us to extend the Nashville Predators series to six games.
So, we got a good haul for Matt Duchene. But, the Colorado Avalanche need the man himself back.
To be clear, I don’t think Duchene is coming back to the Avs. The general consensus is he’ll sign with the Nashville Predators so he can fully indulge in his country music affinity. They don’t have a ton of money to throw at him, but Matt has ever shown he’s willing to take a discount in exchange for intangibles.
Yet he would be such a good fit for the Avs.
What the Colorado Avalanche Need
The Avalanche had the hottest line in the NHL last season with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. There’s no reason to think they’ll drop off significantly or at all next season as all three took a stride forward from the previous year.
After that, the Avalanche have a Tyson Barrie for scoring and… not a lot else. Secondary scoring was a big problem for the team last season. Between the top line, they scored 106 goals, almost 41% of the team’s goals. Add Barrie’s 14 goals, and you have 46% of the team’s scoring.
So, almost half of the Colorado Avalanche’s goals came from four players. That’s not ideal.
The other area in which Colorado was significantly lacking was faceoff wins. As a team, the Avs won just 44.3% of their faceoffs. Their best faceoff winner was left wing Gabriel Landeskog with 50%. After that came the first center, Alexander Kerfoot with 46.7%
Yes, yes, faceoffs aren’t the most important aspect of the game. To say they’re unimportant is wrong, though. There were definitely times, especially in overtime, when lost faceoffs cost Colorado.
What Matt Duchene Brings
Well, when Duchene was with the Avalanche, he was our best faceoff winner. He’s only been under 50% once in his career — his rookie year (44%). Last year between his time with Ottawa and Columbus, he was pretty solidly at about 55.5%.
Likewise, we know Duchene is never going to be as prolific a scorer as Nathan MacKinnon or Mikko Rantanen. But he’d be the third or fourth best scorer on the team. He’s now hit the 30-goal mark three times in his career, including the last two seasons. His last two seasons were also solid 70-point years, which is pretty par for the course for Matt.
Landeskog beat Duchene out in points this season with 75. However, his previous career-best was 65. So, it’s safe to say he and Duchene would be in tandem for that third spot.
What’s more, Duchene killed it in the playoffs this year. We never really got the chance to see what he could do in the postseason. His first time in the playoffs was as a rookie and the second time he was injured.
In 10 games with the Blue Jackets this postseason, he earned five goals and five assists.
Bringing Dutchy Back to Colorado
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I don’t think Dutchy is coming back to the Avs. If he doesn’t go to Nashville, he’ll sign with another team that’s playoff bound and offers him a fair contract — he’ll probably want term and a no-move clause.
And while Duchene won’t be greedy, most players of his caliber do hit free agency hoping for a pay raise. He just completed a five-year contract worth $6 million annually.
I could see him potentially wanting a contract like Vladimir Tarasenkos‘ — seven years (Tarasenko’s is eight because he signed with his current team) at $7.5 million, last four years with a no-trade clause. He might take less from Nashville, but I think that’s what Colorado would have to offer.
And they likely won’t. And they probably shouldn’t.
Ah, well, it’s a good fantasy. The Colorado Avalanche would instantly improve on both faceoffs and, more importantly, secondary scoring. We’d have a true second-line center at last.
Well, instead we’ll have to fill those needs the old-fashioned way — developing our talent. Hopefully Tyson Jost takes that necessary next-step forward and we see J.T. Compher and Alexander Kerfoot solidify their roles on the second line.