Colorado Avalanche: The Importance of Scoring First

Did you know that when the Colorado Avalanche score first they have biggest chances of winning?

Or, at least, statistically – in practice, things sometimes don’t go as planned. Some teams are really into a dramatic narrative where the opponent scores and scores, and when all hope is lost, they make a comeback, either tying the score or winning the game. The Colorado Avalanche have had those type of games but they are more of a “score first, win the game” type.

Maybe it’s the heat and excitement of getting the first goal of the game or maybe is some metaphysical stuff that not even the most expert analysts can explain, but the stats show that when the Avs score first, they have bigger chances of winning. Let’s take a quick look.

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Per Hockey Reference, looking back to the 2018-2019 season, the Colorado Avalanche had an overall record of 28-6-6 when scoring first, with 15-2-3 at home and 13-4-3 away. When the opponent scored first, the overall record was 10-24-8 (6-12-3 at home, 4-12-5 away). It’s a big difference, yes, which translated to Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs makes scoring first an even bigger and important task.

Now, the Avs are also into what I call the “miraculous comeback”, which is scoring a lot on the third to tie the score or win the game. The team had a total of 103 goals scored on third periods this season (59 in the first, and 93 in the second). But they also let the guard down on the third, with opponent teams scoring 89 goals in the third (65 in the first, 78 in the second).

What is that? Shots? (no, not that type of shots). Well, the Colorado Avalanche were very into shooting on the second period with a total of 921 (896 in the first, and 833 in the third), and opponents tried to kill their vibe on the second with 894 (807 in the first, 872 in the third). Just like an extra bit of information.

“Then why did they lose on Game 5 if they scored first?!”, you might ask. Well, there was a glitch on the hockey Matrix, that’s why.

Nah, of course not. The Sharks scored first but as there was a minor penalty before the puck crossed the line, the goal was overturned. That and the fact that scoring first doesn’t always mean the Avs will win – but they have much bigger chances. Score first, shoot shoot shoot and wear the goalie out; those things can be key to survive the upcoming games.

And, of course, Game 6 has a very magical thing I already addressed, which is “home ice advantage”. Wonderful things can happen on Monday, so brace yourselves and hug your loved ones.

The Colorado Avalanche will host Game 6 of Round 2 against the San Jose Sharks on Monday. If they win, the series will be tied once more, and Game 7 will take place in San Jose on Wednesday. Dear Avs, please score first.