Colorado Avalanche: 4 Keys to Beating the Flames in Round 1

The Colorado Avalanche have it in them to beat the Calgary Flames. Here are four keys to the series.

Hey, Colorado Avalanche fans, let’s go all-in like our superstar Nathan MacKinnon and say just making the playoffs isn’t enough for us this year. We want to win a playoff series. Well, to do that, the Avalanche have to beat the Calgary Flames.

On the surface, the two teams don’t look evenly-matched. The Flames are the best in the Western Conference with 107 points. Colorado slid into the last wild card spot with 90 points.

However, records don’t tell the tale — points totals are just what get a team into the playoffs. The Avalanche are in, and they’re in much better shape than last year when they took the dominant Nashville Predators to six games.

Indeed, with the news that star winger Mikko Rantanen is returning for Game 1, Colorado is pretty much healthy. Last year we were missing our top defenseman, Erik Johnson, and starting goalie, Semyon Varlamov. This year we’ve got pretty much everybody.

I’m excited Colorado got Calgary in this first round because I think they’d have a harder time beating Nashville or Winnipeg in the playoffs. Rather, I think the Avs and Flames are well-matched, and we’ll be seeing some exciting hockey.

So, let’s look at five keys that can help the Colorado Avalanche achieve victory over the Calgary Flames.

Regular-Season Record

Let’s get this one out of the way early because the Colorado Avalanche didn’t have a good record against the Flames in the regular season. In fact, they went 0-2-1, with the single point coming in their only home game.

The goal differential wasn’t huge, though — 14-10 in favor of Calgary. That also represents a fair amount of scoring — 24 goals in three games. Like I said, this should be a fun series.

The overtime loss was a result of two of the Avs’ areas of weakness — failing to play a full 60 and failing to control the puck in overtime. Colorado went up 2-0 in the first period then lost enough steam to let Calgary come back. The Avs lost a board battle for the puck, and Johnny “Rat-like Activity Detected” Gaudreau took off on the game-winning breakaway.

The November loss was an even worse example of taking the foot off the gas. Colorado went up with a commanding 4-1 lead by the end of the second. However, Calgary came back with five goals in the fifth period. It was an absolute free-for-all.

The January loss in Calgary was the opposite affair, but also an exposure of an area of weakness for Colorado. Colorado went down two goals early, and though they battled back to tie, they took a second-period penalty that was the ultimate difference-maker in the game when the Flames scored on the power play.

Lesson learned: The playoffs take the intensity up a notch. Colorado can’t afford to take a single shift off, much less entire periods, because the Flames have enough fire power to blow open the game.

Goal Tending

Colorado is looking good in this category. I’m going to take an in-depth look at this matchup in a later post (once both coaches announce who their starter is). However, the Avalanche got some hot goal tending at just the right moment — leading into the playoffs.

As the Calgary Sun — and general hockey wisdom — points out, teams live and die by their goal tending in the playoffs. You only have to look at 1996 and Mr. Patrick “No More Rats” Roy to see the truth of that wisdom. And, according to the Sun, Mike Smith and David Rittich have created doubt throughout the regular season.

Of course, you could say the same for our goalies through the mid-season slump. However, starting at the beginning of March, Philipp Grubauer got hot and helped backstop the Avalanche to the postseason. Jared Bednar has coyly refused to name Grubauer as the starter, but he’s got to be. Semyon Varlamov played all three games during the regular season.

Line Match Ups

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The Colorado Avalanche have the hottest line in the NHL in Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and the returning Mikko Rantanen. The trio will start out separate. Nate and Gabe will remain with Alexander Kerfoot, while Mikko will start out with Carl Soderberg and J.T. Compher.

Jared Bednar rationalized the split up by stating that the Flames had employed Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Frolik against the top line in the regular season matchups. Indeed, according to Sportsnet, one of the keys for the Calgary Flames is to release the so-called 3M Line against our trio.

With Rantanen dropping to the second line, I don’t know what Calgary coach Bill Peters will do with his 3M line. He, too, might split it up this checking line. That said, I’m also pretty confident we’ll see our top line reunited at some point.

Side note: The article claims the 3M line did a great job containing our stars. However, the trio combined for 4 goals and five assists in the three games. I wouldn’t exactly call that contained.

Blueline

The Calgary Flames have a slight edge over the Avalanche on the blueline. Captain Mark Giordano is their cornerstone. According to NHL.com, the Flames have registered 371 more shots than they have allowed when he is on the ice. The 35-year-old can also produce offense — 17 goals and 57 assists for 74 points.

Yikes. That’s a defensive powerhouse if ever I saw one. Mr. Chicago-Style Pizza is responsible in both ends of the ice, and that’s going to be a challenge for Colorado. Other notables on their defensive roster include Giordano’s partner, T.J. Brodie, Noah Hanifin, and Travis Hamonic.

Colorado’s blueline looks the best it has in recent years. Our top points producer from the blueline is Tyson Barrie — 14 goals and 45 assists for 59 points. Nikita Zadorov is our big hitter, Ian Cole our playoff veteran, and Samuel Girard is our Whirling Dervish.

Our not-so-secret weapon is the captain of the blueline, Erik Johnson. He struggled at times this season. However, the 31-year-old has only seven playoff games to his name, and he’s got to be one of the most motivated players on the ice this series. And Johnson can be the biggest of difference-makers in a game.