Colorado Avalanche Got Exactly What They Need With Cale Makar

The New Top Prospect Checks Off a Lot of Boxes for the Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche bucked a trend in the 2017 draft by selecting defenceman Cale Makar with their top pick. It was the first time the team drafted a defenceman in the first round since 2011. More importantly, it was the first time they used their top pick on a highly skilled defenceman in way too long.

The Avalanche waited a decade after selecting Kevin Shattenkirk 14th overall in 2007 to pick another immensely skilled defender in the first round. Those two picks sandwich current borderline NHLer Duncan Siemens, who impresses more for being big and mean than anything else.

Taking Makar was a brilliant move  because the Avalanche badly need a dynamic, right handed defenceman who can put up huge numbers.

There just happened to be one on the board, and he just happened to be the best prospect available.

Cale Ma-Karlsson

Already the sky-high projections for Cale Makar have begun. TSN’s Craig Button and others have compared Makar’s game to the two time Norris Trophy winning Ottawa Senators defender Erik Karlsson.

Hyperbole runs rampant around draft time, with many pundits and fans racing to snap judgments of teenagers based on very little information. Rash decisions combined with the internet means knee-jerk reactions like this one will be around forever.

Sometimes, it’s better to trust the people who have actually scouted the kids and know what to look for. In this case, that means having faith that Director of Amateur Scouting Alan Hepple knows how to identify good players.

Seeing as his first 6 draft picks – and 7 of the first 8 – have turned pro in less than two years, that’s a leap Avalanche fans should be fairly comfortable with. If Hepple decided that Makar was the best player available, then take his word for it.

For now.

The Colorado Avalanche certainly weren’t alone in thinking Makar could be a generational talent. Rumours spread just prior to the draft that the New Jersey Devils might be taking him at 1^st overall, and just over half of a small group of NHL scouts ranked Makar as a better defenceman than #3 pick Miro Heiskanen.

But even if Makar doesn’t become the next Karlsson, the Colorado Avalanche were still smart to take him.

But He’s Too Small

No he’s not. He was measured at the Draft Combine as 5-11^1/4 and just over 187 pounds. Erik Karlsson is currently 6-0, 191 pounds, and that’s after 9 extra years of building muscle. He was the same height as Makar and 22 pounds lighter at the combine in 2008.

Makar needs to add 4 pounds and grow less than one inch to be the same size as the perennial Norris Trophy contender scouts compare his game to. Auston Matthews ‘grew’ that same ^3/4 inch between the combine and the start of the season. Patrik Laine had an even more impressive summer, sprouting at least 1^1/4 inches in a few months.

Feel free to wink and nod along if you read about Makar going through a growth spurt and reaching the arbitrary 6 foot barrier before he’s in the NHL full time.

And if there’s any question whether his height makes him unwilling to take the body, just ask Jack Thomas.

What matters is that anything Makar does or doesn’t do in the NHL will be due to his skill-set and not his size. Discounting goalies, the league is empirically getting smaller, and 13 of 17 Norris Trophy winners since 2000 have been 195 pounds or lighter. Nicklas Lidstrom’s 7 wins throw off the numbers, but the point remains that the top defenceman in the league is 10-15 pounds lighter than average more than 3/4 of the time in recent memory.

Long story short: in the unlikely event that Cale Makar reaches his full potential, the Colorado Avalanche will have a bigger, stronger version of Erik Karlsson, arguably the most dominant defencemen of this generation.

But We Need Guys Who Can Defend

No argument there. Maybe Makar’s always below average defensively, though that seems unlikely for a guy that eliteprospects says:

Makes high percentage decisions that help his team move the puck up-ice. (He has) High-end hockey IQ and understands his own game very well, allowing him to stay coachable and play to his strengths in any situation. Makar’s potential is that of a traditional franchise defender that can do it all.

If that’s irrelevant, and Makar never becomes a good defender, that’s still fine. Colorado already has enough of them on the way.

Siemens, Chris Bigras, Andrei Mironov, Mason Geertsen, Sergei Boikov and Anton Lindholm have shown in professional leagues that they tend to their own zone first.

That leaves Nikita Zadorov as the only guy under 24 with any notable offensive game. Maybe. And he might sign in Russia soon.

Related Story: Avs Need to Sign Zadorov

Those 7 guys have 962 combined games in the AHL, KHL and NHL. They’ve managed 47 goals, 160 assists and 207 points in that time. That’s just over 1 point every 5 games, mostly in lower leagues.

If even 2 of them become impact players, the Colorado Avalanche have their shutdown types sorted. That certainly appears likely, which will finally help bring an end to the team’s defensive futility.

On the other hand, who’s going to run the powerplay and be that dynamic presence on the back-end?

There is some hope if Will Butcher signs and Nicolas Meloche transitions well to the pro game. Neither are guarantees. Best case, they become decent scoring dmen, easily a cut below what Makar projects to be.

Management has sunk a lot of effort into getting guys to shut down the opposition. It was time to get someone who can excel in the other two zones.

But We Have Tyson Barrie

True. We have a 26 year old with a lower ceiling than Cale Makar. That’s no reason to pass on him.

In fact, having Makar aboard gives the Colorado Avalanche an incredible window to dramatically improve in the medium and long term. Makar will likely take at least 2-3 years to emerge as a top defenceman, and Barrie will be nearing free agency at the same time. Both are cost controlled until then.

That’s a potent combination.

First, it means there’s no need to rush Makar. Barrie can fill that role while Makar develops outside the NHL. When he is ready to make the jump, Barrie can insulate him so he’s not forced into too big a role too soon, and even teach him some things.

It also means that Makar could make Barrie expendable shortly before he becomes UFA. And there is always interest on the trade market for a player with his skill-set. Trading Barrie for picks and prospects if Makar outplays him would go a long way towards keeping the cupboards stocked.

Related Story: Potential Tyson Barrie Trades

Adding Makar gives the Avalanche a great opportunity to improve on one of their strengths and then pick up some solid pieces for their future when that happens.

That’s a fantastic position to be in.

But We Need Lefties

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Yes, Erik Johnson and Barrie are currently our two best defenceman, and both are right handed. Neither of them is a long term solution. If they’re still the cornerstone of the blueline in 5 years, the rebuild failed.

Again.

On the other hand, all seven of those young dmen playing pro shoot left. So does almost everyone else in the organization. Before Makar was drafted, 2015 2^nd rounder Meloche and 2016 6^th rounder Nate Clurman were the only other right handed defenceman in the organization with any hope of being NHL regulars. And Clurman is a long shot.

Now, after taking Connor Timmins, another exceptional looking righty in the second round this year, there are 12 LHD and 6 RHD in the organization. Whether by design or coincidence, the Avalanche have loaded up on defensive minded LHD prospects over the years.

Now they have an offensive minded righty to pair with one of them.

Conclusion

Cale Makar was a perfect fit for the Colorado Avalanche at 4^th overall. The pain of losing the draft lottery is dulled by the opportunity to add such a dynamic player with game breaking potential to a spot where the Avalanche were barren.

Colorado had 7 defencemen under 24 playing pro hockey last season. 5 are 6-2, 200 or bigger, all shoot left, and all are known primarily for something other than being fast and skilled.

Cale Makar is on the other end of the spectrum and he gives the organization something they desperately need.

Next: Avs Could Trade Barrie to New Jersey

Other prospects would have fit nicely, and it certainly doesn’t mean Makar will win a Norris Trophy or four. But the game he brings dovetails nicely with what the Avalanche needed. That he was widely regarded as the best prospect available makes it a perfect match.