Colorado Avalanche: Mikhail Grigorenko’s Contract Extension
By Ross Sellers
The Colorado Avalanche have two big contracts to secure this summer with Tyson Barrie and Nathan MacKinnon, but Avs fans may be forgetting that Mikhail Grigorenko will also need an extension.
What can Colorado Avalanche management expect to have to give up for Grigorenko’s services? Sure, he hasn’t had the breakout season all Avalanche fans were hoping for, but he’s shown that he’s capable of good production when given more time on the ice.
Whenever given the opportunity to play with top-tier talent for a few games consistently, while also getting plenty of minutes, he has shown that his hands, puck-possession, and defense are invaluable assets.
Grigorenko’s Ice Time Affects his Production
In games where he has played at least 15 minutes (16 games) he has 10 of his 18 points on the season. He’s played 53 games on the season, and has a total of eight points in the 38 games where he hasn’t reached at least 15 minutes in ice time.
To me, that’s a pretty obvious stat. Give Grigorenko more ice time, and he will produce. He has a point in three of his last four games, and there was that other time when he had seven points in six games between Nov. 12-23.
That means that 10 of his 18 total points have come in 10 games where he’s averaged 16:21 in ice time. As such, it’s obvious that his skill is better suited to a top-line role.
Although it’s a small difference, he’s a +3 in the 16 games with at least 15 minutes of ice time, and a +2 in the 38 games where he didn’t reach 15 minutes in ice time.
Perhaps that’s just a symptom of a lack of ice time though, so you certainly cannot take that stat too seriously, it’s just another arbitrary marker, in reality.
More From Mile High Sticking: Avs and Wings Rivalry Revisited in Alumni Game
Still, I contend that Grigorenko obviously needs to play with better players, and receive more ice time. Hopefully he can also work on his skating during the offseason and become a better contributor to the top-six.
All of that only happens if he receives another contract however, and I wrote about his prove-it contract with one of my first MHS articles over the summer.
The question is, has he proven it?
Mikhail Grigorenko Will be Re-signed
Unless the Avalanche are somehow capable of trading Grigs for an even better prospect (unlikely because he is still unproven), then they will certainly maintain his services if they want to make the Ryan O’Reilly trade worthwhile.
The obvious questions are: how long will his contract last? And, how much will it cost?
Let’s answer length first. He will most definitely receive a longer deal than his current one-year deal, but it will probably still be a bridge deal, allowing him to grow into his role for the next contract, whatever that role may be.
Next, let’s cover price. He’ll certainly see a pay raise with a re-sign because he’s shown improvement, as well as potential to improve even more when he’s been given the opportunity to play amongst the best players on the Colorado Avalanche.
More from Mile High Sticking
- Could Colorado Avalanche move on from Pavel Francouz next offseason?
- 4 goalies to replace Pavel Francouz if he has to miss time
- Colorado Avalanche make sneaky signing with Tatar
- Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog could return in 2023-24 playoffs
- Colorado Avalanche rookie face-off tournament roster
And now the prediction for the actual contract: Mikhail Grigorenko can expect a three year deal worth 1.5 to 2 million, with bonuses based on performance.
That will put him right in the ballpark of Nick Holden, Cody McLeod, John Mitchell, and on the bottom end of Blake Comeau‘s contract*
He’s playing with that quality right now, and so he doesn’t deserve more money, but the bonuses will give him incentive to produce at a higher rate.
Plus, it’s just a three-year deal and he’ll be 25 at the conclusion of the contract, which will either mark a big pay raise, or a number of other scenarios, depending on his performance.
*All contract stats taken from spotrac.com
What Can Avs Fans Expect From Grigs Down the Line?
I think a bridge deal is perfect for him. It shows confidence in his ability, and trust in his ability to grow stronger and produce with more consistency as well, especially if there are bonuses involved.
I see him being a consistent contributor to the top-six on the Colorado Avalanche, and if Mikko Rantanen can contribute in that capacity as well, then the Avalanche will be looking at a much better forward group next year.
Jarome Iginla will stick around for at least one more year, but probably in a more limited role on the third line. Alex Tanguay will almost certainly leave the fold.
Which leaves a nice top-six comprised of: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Carl Soderberg, Gabe Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, and Mikhail Grigorenko.
Next: Colorado Avalanche Distributing Offensive Talent
How those lines will shake out is beyond me, and a few might find themselves on the third line with prominent minutes nonetheless.
Still re-signing Grigorenko is a big aspect of this top-six, and so his performance. If he can continue to improve, then the Colorado Avalanche will certainly be looking at a formidable top-six in the future.