Flames Oust Avs 3-2: What We Learned

The Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche squared off at the Saddledome north of the border tonight, in what was dubbed a contest with playoff implications on the line.

In reality, it was an important game for the Flames. The Avalanche have played admirable hockey of late, and haven’t given up on their season. Unfortunately, the percentages have. Despite a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 entering the game, the Avs have made up practically zero ground in the conference.

Just look at the records of the teams Colorado is competing with for the final wild-card slot over their last 10:

Calgary: 6-2-2
Minnesota: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 6-3-1
Los Angeles: 6-2-2
Dallas: 8-2-0

After the loss tonight, the Avalanche find themselves trailing Winnipeg by 8 points with just 10 games left to play. Minnesota is 11 points clear, and suddenly Dallas has hopped the Avs in the standings as well.

The good stretch of hockey the Avalanche have played of late hasn’t resulted in them making up any significant ground in the conference. Everyone is playing well.

If the Avalanche win every game the rest of the way, Winnipeg just has to win 6 of their final 10 games to hold off the Avs. The Jets also have a strong 30-24 advantage in ROW (regulation and OT wins) which would be the first tiebreaker if the teams did tie in points.

I don’t want to spoil people’s parades if they are holding out hope that the Avalanche can make the playoffs. It’s just not going to happen.

2. 103. Final. 3. 112

What I like about the Avalanche right now:

I like that the Avalanche are battling hard. The Avs notoriously had a chunk of their roster book “Vegas” tickets down the stretch run a few years back under Joe Sacco. This current squad is the Sprite to Sacco’s Coke. They are the un-cola. The anti-Sacco. I love the passion and enthusiasm from this team down the stretch.
I love Tyson Barrie. The guy is such a weapon on offense, and seems to be playing with extreme ease and confidence right now.

What confuses me about the Avalanche right now:

Nick Holden confuses me. He’s not exactly a young guy, at 27 years of age. However, he has a baby-face, so in my mind I still think of him as a young guy with upside. Tonight Holden had a few shifts that made me want to light my hair on fire, and yet he also had some strong plays. His defense on a Flames 2-on-1 late in the third to keep the game close was excellent. I just don’t know what Holden is. Objectively, this season has been a letdown after his surprising year last season. Is Holden still a guy with upside who can use his size to be a solid defender, and contribute offense like he did last year? Or is this more mediocre version of Holden what Avs fans should expect for the duration of his contract?
The Avalanche power play also confuses me. Tonight, the puck movement looked better, but it still didn’t result in a goal. I am curious how much of the woes are mental at this point. I think there is something to the mindset of thinking you are going to score vs. hoping to score.
Nate Guenin. I actually think he’s been playing better of late. He has looked like a passable, hard-working, grinder of a d-man for a bottom pairing on the NHL. I mean, he’s affordable, and durable. He has his flaws, but I think he’s been playing adequate hockey for his role lately. This confuses me, because everyone still tells me he is terrible.

What I don’t like about the Avalanche right now:

I don’t like the contradiction of value that winning is causing right now. Some argue that winning is important for this team to get that confidence and learn how to win. Others feel that the Avalanche are throwing away a good draft pick by winning all these games down the stretch. It’s not a black and white situation, and it’s hard to quantify. What I do know, is that early in the NHL draft, the value of picks can drop of significantly even a couple of picks down the line. Long-term, I think it probably would benefit the Avs to get the best pick possible if they aren’t making the playoffs.
Brad Stuart. I praised Guenin above, and Stuart is meant to fill a similar role. Problem is, Stuart isn’t affordable, and I think his level of play has been a couple of notches below Guenin’s of late. It was weird that Roy went out of his way to praise Stuart for his “warrior” role on the team. I guess you don’t want to alienate your guys, but Stuart alienates his team’s chances of doing successful things more often than not. I hate ripping on the guy, but the errors of late have been costly, and it makes me uneasy knowing he’s signed on for big money for two more years. Without the contract, I might feel a little better… but NOPE.

Next: Did We Overreact to MacKinnon's Sophomore Slump?

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