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Nathan MacKinnon: The Colorado Avalanche Forward’s Sophomore Slump Is Exaggerated

By Janik Beichler

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Colorado Avalanche centre Nathan MacKinnon had one of the best rookie seasons we have seen in a long time, after being drafted 1st overall instead of Predators-defenceman Seth Jones. Many fans and experts were surprised about that move, but the Cole Harbour, NS native left little doubt that it was the right one. Playing mostly on the right wing of Paul Stastny and with captain Gabriel Landeskog on the other wing, MacKinnon did not miss a single game and had a 24-goal and 63-point regular season, before adding another two goals and ten points in the playoffs.

The Avalanche is struggling to roll all the way into the playoffs once again – and Nathan MacKinnon is not the reason.

Having a rookie season like that and winning the Calder Trophy without serious competition allows fans and media to expect at least an equally good sophomore season from a player that looked more NHL-ready than most other rookie forwards do. However, the injured 6-foot, 195-pound centre currently sits at 14 goals and 38 points in 64 games (March 23rd, 2015) and critics make him – in part – responsible for why the Avalanche is struggling to roll all the way into the playoffs once again. There have been headlines calling it a “nightmarish season” for him. But is it really all that bad?

The short answer is no. The long answer has a little more argument to it and is mostly based on advanced stats. For better understanding I will quickly explain the abbreviations that will be used in this article. All stats are taken from stats.hockeyanalysis.com and in 5 on 5 close (5 on 5 situations when the game is tied or within one goal in the first and second periods or tied in the third period).

Corsi = All shot attempts = shots + shots that missed the net + blocked shots
iCorsi = Individual Corsi
TOI = Time on ice
IPP = Individual Points Percentage = The % of goals scored while the player was on ice that the player had a point on
CF = Corsi for
CA = Corsi Against
CF% = Corsi For% = Corsi For / (Corsi For + Corsi Against)
CFRelTM = The player’s CF relative to his line mates when those line mates are not playing with him
CARelTM = The player’s CA relative to his line mates when those line mates are not playing with him
CF%RelTM = The player’s CF relative to his line mates when those line mates are not playing with him
OppCF = Average CF of all opponents when the player is not playing
OppCA = Average CA of all opponents when the player is not playing
ShPct = Average shot percentage of the player’s shots
/60 = Given stat per 60 minutes

Feb 7, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon (29) shoots in the second period against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Minnesota Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Nathan MacKinnon has possession stats that may be surprising to many people that do not pay regular attention to them. The one area that he really stands out in is his individual Corsi stats. MacKinnon has an iCorsi of 169, which makes for an iCorsi/60 of 18.06. As a comparison, Gabriel Landeskog is second in both of these categories with an iCorsi of 141 and an iCorsi/60 of 13.27, leaving him quite far behind MacKinnon. To those that now think “well, then obviously he can’t even get the puck on the net and score” shall be pointed out that MacKinnon records 11.43 shots/60, ahead of Landeskog with 7.9 shots/60. The centre’s 18.06 iCorsi/60 still leaves him in the 26th spot among NHL skaters. However, that is more of an Avalanche problem than an individual one.

Another really important stat is his IPP. MacKinnon notched a point in 88% of the goals that were scored with him on the ice. He is second on the team in that category, trailing no other than Danny Brière.

Nathan MacKinnon is also a really important part of whatever line he is on this season. While he has been playing with various linemates and switching from centre to wing and back many times, his possession stats have been consistent. His CF/60 is at 57.38, again best on the team with Landeskog being first behind him with a CF/60 of 56.56. His CA/60 is 59.52, trailing Rendulic, Cliche, and Talbot, but being first among Avalanche top six players. With those numbers MacKinnon is obviously first on the team in CF% with 49.1 – again ahead of Gabriel Landeskog with 48.5.

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Now it gets interesting. The 19-year-old Canadian improves his teammates’ CF/60 by 12.03 when he joins their line. Landeskog is again a close second with a CF/60RelTM of 11.56, and after a long gap we have Ryan O’Reilly sitting at third with a CF/60RelTM of 4.50. MacKinnon’s CA/60RelTM is -3.54, first among first and second liners and fourth among all teammates. His CF%RelTM is again team-best at 7.2, with Landeskog being a close second at 7.0.

So advanced stats show that despite having many less points than last year, Nathan MacKinnon is a more than important part of our Avalanche this year. When things are not going quite as planned, and only blaming the obvious (the defence) seems too easy, people like to find other players to blame. In this case it wrongfully hit Nate MacKinnon. He is out for at least the remainder of the regular season with a fractured foot. That will – as hard as some people may find it to believe – make it even harder for Colorado to find a way into the playoffs.

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