Why Nathan MacKinnon’s projected career year is a mirage

Nathan MacKinnon is one of the best players in all of the NHL, but this season isn’t going as well as it could be.
Colorado Avalanche v Washington Capitals
Colorado Avalanche v Washington Capitals | Rob Carr/GettyImages

The Colorado Avalanche are still the best team in the Central Division in terms of points, with 44. One of the biggest reasons for the success has been star center Nathan MacKinnon.

MacKinnon is on pace for 66.8 goals right now. If he reached that mark, it would be the best season of his career. His current career-high in goals is 51, when he did it in the 2023-24 season. He’s got 22 goals in 27 games, including two game-winners. However, the shocking part of it all is that he’s left some goals out on the ice in too many games.

Of the 27 games played in the 2025-26 season, MacKinnon has failed to score in 12 of them. That’s 44.4 percent, if you were wondering. MacKinnon has shown that in some games, he can be on fire. However, he has had two instances where he went scoreless in three consecutive games. That’s not going to get the job done.

That’s not to say that MacKinnon isn’t having a good year. He still leads the league in points (46) and goals (22). Macklin Celebrini and Connor McDavid are right behind him in points (21 each), while Morgan Geekie is one goal behind him (21). It’s not a question of whether or not MacKinnon will remain the top scorer in the league, but for his personal best in goals in a season? It’s far from a guarantee.

MacKinnon is in the top 10 in terms of giveaways this season. At seventh place, he’s given the puck away 45 times. In comparison, Martin Necas is tied with Zach Werenski in leading the league in turnovers with 52. Those situations need to be reduced tremendously. If they aren’t, MacKinnon is never going to reach his current goal projection of 66.8.

Avalanche’s special teams is still struggling

Among the reasons why MacKinnon won’t set a new career-high in goals is because the power play continues to be the team’s biggest struggle. They rank 25th in power plays this season, converting on just 15.6 percent of them.

It’s not for the lack of trying… Or is it? They’ve gotten some quality shots on net during their power plays, but sometimes still do too much passing, which can create chaos, and not the good kind.

There are a lot of moving pieces on the Avs’ power play unit, installed by new assistant coach Dave Hakstol. MHS contributor Conor Lively has talked extensively about the team’s ways on the power play unit. What are they doing differently than in years past?

I feel like the Avalanche are probably very frustrated right now with that unit. Through 27 games, the team should be having a lot more success on the power play than what they’re actually putting out on the ice. No, it’s not been a huge issue in terms of the win-loss situation going on for the team, but at some point, if they don’t start to see success, it might come to hurt later down the road.

Though MacKinnon does lead the team in power plays goals this season with six, some can argue that he should have several more at this point. He’s doing a good job in terms of being the best on the unit, but it doesn’t seem like it’s enough. It’s absolutely not frequent enough.

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