The MacKinnon-Necas duo is the lynch pin to the success of the Colorado Avalanche

There has been a lot of debate surrounding Martin Necas and his future with the Colorado Avalanche. While many have been calling for the Avs to trade him due to rumors surrounding his alleged dissatisfaction with his time in Denver and regarding his contract extension negotiations, the reality is that the team's regular season and postseason success hinge on him and Nathan MacKinnon rediscovering their magic from the beginning of their time together.

Complementary or Redundant?

There are a lot of characteristics that both Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas have in common. They shoot right. They are super-duper fast. They are a cheat code at zone entries. They prefer to play with the puck on their stick. They like to be the set-up guys but are willing to shoot if need be.

This can make it seem like it would be in the Avs’ best interest to split them up on separate lines in order to spread the wealth throughout the top-6 when, in fact, the team is much more dangerous when the two of them play together. That is because the pace at which they play and think the game together makes it harder for the other team to deny them the time and space in which to operate. Trying to deny a zone entry to Necas means giving more space on the ice to MacKinnon. Attempting to keep MacKinnon on the perimeter allows Necas to slip backdoor for the shot pass.

A Numbers Game

Inspired by a podcast by AJ Haefele and Dimitri Filopovic on the Hockey PDOcast, I wanted to see what Necas and MacKinnon’s 5v5 on-ice results (as reported by Natural Stat Trick) looked like together and apart by time on ice (TOI), Corsi For % (CF%), goals for (GF), and goals against (GA).  After Necas joined the Colorado Avalanche for his first game, their season can be broken down into five segments (each one consisting of seven games, except segment 4, which was six games): 1/25 to 2/6, 2/7 to 3/6 (interrupted by 4 Nations), 3/8 to 3/20, 3/22 to 4/2, and 4/19 to 5/3 (playoff series against Dallas). Note: The final six games of the season are not included since Necas was hurt for the first three and MacKinnon was rested for the last three.

When looking at the breakdown, it is clear that Necas and MacKinnon were very impactful together in those first two segments. They played the vast majority of their 5v5 time together, dominated puck possession, and outscored their opponents 14 to 6. Their dominance together began to wane in that third segment, which started post-trade deadline, resulting in them playing less time together and giving Bednar an opportunity to experiment with different line combinations. Unfortunately, that line shuffling did not lead to better production for Necas, MacKinnon and their new lines. In fact, by the fourth segment, they hardly played any 5v5 time together.

Between not playing together much during the fourth segment, the final six games being meaningless to their seeding, and the break before the start of the playoffs, MacKinnon and Necas went almost one month without playing much impactful time together 5v5. That changed in the playoffs when Bednar concluded that the use of his two star forwards was for them to play together. Not surprisingly, the duo rediscovered their chemistry and once again dominated possession and outscored the Stars during their shifts.

However, one cannot help but wonder if Necas and MacKinnon had been left together to work through their March lull that they would have deepened their instincts and been able to become even more dangerous come playoffs. Hopefully, from the insight gained from last season’s trials, Bednar and the coaching staff will make keeping Necas and MacKinnon together a priority and help them become a singularly unique weapon in the NHL where they can translate their shared speed, vision, playmaking, and shots into tons of offensive production.