After dropping two games in a row, coming out of the Four Nations break, the Colorado Avalanche have put themselves in a rough spot. Two more losses to central division foes is bad enough, but the way the Avalanche fell in St Louis on Sunday was particularly disheartening.
The team looked completely flat from about the 15 minute mark of the first frame, until the final dismal horn. If Colorado wants to be a contender this season, that kind of game will not cut it. While it's true that the Avalanche’s top tier talent may have been tired from the Four Nations competition, they are too good to lean on excuses.
Three Avalanche all-stars just helped lead Canada to 4 Nations glory. Nathan MacKinnon was justifiably crowned tournament MVP. In the crunch of a playoff push there is simply no time to complain of heavy legs. Nor can the club bemoan their unfortunately long injury report.
The upcoming six-game homestand, which will run through the NHL trade deadline, could very well define the 2024-25 campaign. With a little over a week to go before the March 7th deadline, you would hope to not still be figuring out a team identity, but this is where we are.
The kind of inconsistency that has shown up in this team all year is not a part of a winning recipe. The Avalanche fans know this, we have watched high-level hockey for years. More importantly, the team themselves know this too.
The return of Valeri Nichuskin to the lineup Wednesday night could solve a lot of problems for the Avalanche. At least on paper, Nichuskin will provide a ton of what the Avalanche have been missing lately. His size, skill, and presence in front of the net is so much of what the offense needs. Big Val is a finisher and a crucial screener who makes his teammates better.
Nichuskin has been out a lot this season between suspension and injury. But his impact is as clear as day. With Nichuskin the Avalanche are 14-7. Without him they are literally a .500 team at 19-17-2.
The harsh truth though, is that the club must collectively help lift Nichuskin back to his comfortable and prominent role on the roster. He may be a massive missing piece in what makes Colorado go, but it would be a failure to expect him to be a savior.
In my opinion, if Colorado wants to prove they can contend for a Cup now, they must show it in a big way these next four games. I'm talking about sweeping all four games, or at the very least, winning three of four. Anything less, and this team could be sellers at the trade deadline.
What do I mean by sellers?
Unfortunately, I mean my personal nightmare scenario. But nevertheless, if Colorado can't turn it on quickly, they could blow up the roster and start planning for next season.
So much of the internal fandom debate lately has centered on the questionable fate of guys like Casey Mittelstadt. I wrote a while back about how I thought that the Avalanche would remain patient with their 2C. But sadly, becoming a seller probably means parting ways with a promising young player the team just invested in this offseason. Not only that, given his continued struggles, the Avalanche might indeed sell low, relative to his talent level and time left on his deal.
Beyond Mittelstadt, other attractive Avalanche players who could be made available are guys like Samuel Girard. Again, a guy I love, and a player I previously said had proven indispensable at one point to the Avalanche.
I bring up all these possibilities not to purposefully reverse myself from earlier in the season, or hedge any dumb imaginary bets. But to say that these moves, particularly if done in tandem, are what a major punt looks like from the Avalanche perspective.
Another harsh reality is that after the seismic shift the earlier season trades, almost anything is possible. The front office has shown a willingness to go bold, and a sell-off would indeed be another massive chapter this year's story.
If the Avalanche can use this stretch to stack up some wins and stabilize in the standings, I still foresee some deadline activity. The types of moves would be smaller, but would still likely lead to some tears being shed.
The Avalanche need both forward scoring depth and backend stability. The difficulty arises from the realization that you have to give value to get something back in return that will make a difference. Plenty of fans might want arguable poor-fits like Oliver Kylington and Calvin DeHaan out, but where is the buyer, and what do you get?
The lack of a firm answer is why I think if we are talking about an active-roster defenseman getting shipped, it's far more likely to be Josh Manson, or even a Sam Malinski. If the discussion is about forwards, the sad, but non-panic move, is probably Ross Colton and or his good buddy Miles Wood.
Conventional wisdom in trades says to borrow from an area of strength to bolster an area of need. But right now, having more than one hole to plug means things get inherently risky. Here's to hoping those second round picks and prospects can really help avert the worst.
There is never an easy painless solution when the trade deadline time comes around. This is doubly true when a team sits at an uncertain borderline of contender or pretender status. It's do or die for the Avalanche from here on out. Buckle up, protect the crease, and don't get greased.