The Colorado Avalanche overpaid for Brock Nelson this offseason. That’s a thought that had been in my mind. But I sort of bit my lip as I figured the market would prove the Avs did the right thing by jumping the gun.
Then, came the Matt Duchene extension with the Dallas Stars. Four years, $18 million, and a full no-movement clause in the first two years.
All right, so Dallas has that tax advantage thing everyone has been complaining about. Fair enough. I assumed Duchene was willing to give the Stars a break just because he’s familiar with the city, and the club is close to a Stanley Cup.
But then, news broke on Friday that the Toronto Maple Leafs had re-signed John Tavares to a four-year, $17.55 million extension.
Toronto doesn’t have a tax advantage. Yet, the Tavares and Duchene deals were eerily similar. That situation got me thinking about Nelson and the Avalanche.
The talk was that Tavares used Nelson as a comparable for what he’s worth on the open market. Tavares was right. If he had gone to market, he could have fetched a contract very similar to Nelson’s.
But he didn’t. He gave the Maple Leafs a hometown discount. Now, that’s not the point here. The point is that, by jumping the gun, the Avalanche overpaid for Nelson.
Colorado Avalanche could have avoided salary cap issues by waiting
The Nelson contract extension led to salary cap issues. Those issues were partially solved by sending Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to the Columbus Blue Jackets on draft day.
Yes, you could argue that they’re bottom-six players and could be replaced by cheaper alternatives. But that deal wouldn’t have been necessary if the Avalanche had signed Nelson to a lower AAV.
If the Avalanche had waited, perhaps after July 1, the Duchene and Tavares deals could have been used as leverage. Nelson would have known that he wasn’t going to get the massive payday he wanted in Long Island.
Instead, the Avalanche gave it to him.
The problem now becomes the optics of Nelson getting overpaid. If he scores close to a point-per-game pace, no one will really mind.
But if Nelson struggles, the contract might become an albatross for Colorado. The Avalanche could be stuck with an anchor they can’t get rid of.
That’s all speculation at this point, of course. All Avalanche fans want Brock Nelson to succeed. The aim is for Nelson to thrive in Colorado and find the peace he didn’t have in Long Island toward the end of his time there.
So, I hope this entire conversation becomes moot by Nelson having a fantastic season.