Nathan MacKinnon put together another all-star caliber season for the Colorado Avalanche with 32 goals and 84 assists for 116 points. It is hard to ask any more from one of the league’s top superstars, but the statistics suggest that MacKinnon’s numbers were somewhat suppressed last season.
Starting off on the right foot
MacKinnon has never been known for his prowess in the faceoff dot. In not one season of his NHL career has he achieved over a 50% win percentage. Last season, he ended with the second-best faceoff percentage of his career at 48.77%. However, with the arrival of faceoff “master” Jack Drury, MacKinnon’s faceoff percentage was 52.99%. Only Drury had a better win rate of players that took more than 20 faceoffs over those games.
Achieving his first 50%+ season in the faceoff dot would mean that MacKinnon and his line will get to spend even more time with the puck on their sticks. Instead of having to spend time trying to get the puck back after a lost draw, they will have more time to spend creating scoring opportunities and, by extension, preventing their opposition from doing damage at the other end.
Setting the tone on 5v5
Most games are won at even strength and the team that can dictate the play has the advantage. To no one’s surprise, any line that Nathan MacKinnon was centering dominated possession at 5v5. Of the five line combinations that he played with for more than 100 minutes, the most successful was Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas, a line that had the best possession numbers to go with 13 goals for and only four goals against. Compare that to the Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen line, which was the only one to log more time on ice. That line gave away more defensively, represented by 12 goals scored on the Avs to their 15 goals scored for them.
If MacKinnon and Necas can replicate those possession numbers, regardless of which winger completes the trio, they should continue to dominate the possession numbers while putting up lots of goals and limiting the damage against them. Add into that that MacKinnon and Necas now have a full preseason together to hit the ground running and get off to a hot start right out of the gate.
Shooters shoot
Nathan MacKinnon has more to give in his individual 5v5 game, especially when it comes to scoring goals. Last season, it seems that he deferred more than he should have and the statistics back that up. Of his 32 goals, only 15 of them came at 5v5. MacKinnon ended the season with 225 shots on goal, the third-highest total of his career. But a shooting percentage of a mere 6.67% - his worst since the 2020-21 season – hamstrung his ability to put the puck in the net as consistently as he did in other recent seasons.
With Necas being more of a playmaker as opposed to Rantanen’s goal scoring predilection, look for MacKinnon to find more balance between play driver and play finisher, sometimes achieving both at the same time. If he is able to increase his shot totals and work to put the puck at a higher rate, he will be looking at another 50-goal season.
While no one will ever accuse MacKinnon of mailing it in over the course of a season, there were some areas in his game last season where it seems that he came up short of meeting the high standards that he sets for himself. Already at the beginning of this preseason, MacKinnon gives the impression that he is ready to rectify those blemishes and lead the Colorado Avalanche to a dominant regular season and a deep playoff run.