Pros and Cons: Should Martin Necas play on a line with MacKinnon or Nelson?

Martin Necas is undeniably a skilled hockey player. He has plenty of speed, creativity, puck skill, and even an underrated shot. Many of those skills are quite similar to the elite ones of Nathan MacKinnon. It is rare to have on one team two players that mirror each other on so many levels: right-handed, top speed bursts, playmaking, and so on. The question then becomes whether MacKinnon and Necas would be most effective together layering those skills to create havoc for other teams or if they would do better apart where each can be the engine that drives his own line offensively.

Pros – Necas with MacKinnon

It is hard enough for teams to keep up with MacKinnon defensively, but to have to keep up with both MacKinnon and Necas at the same time seems like almost an impossible task. Both are zone entry machines and respecting their speed will invariably result in more space for the other to capitalize on. With Necas working the perimeter and darting in to the far side corner of the goal to MacKinnon powering his way through the middle of the ice, the two of them have the ability to move the puck around at such a pace to create multiple scoring chances for the Avs over the span of one shift.

According to Natural Stat Trick, last season on 5v5, the duo had a stellar 64% Corsi For percentage, which shows just how much they dominated puck possession together. Apart, they were each under 60% CF%.

Cons – Necas with MacKinnon

When the duo of Necas and MacKinnon have the puck, they can create magic. But when they do not have the puck and have to play defense, it can be a tough assignment. While Necas statistically was a defensive improvement over Rantanen, he has never been a defensively-oriented forward. MacKinnon has always had the earned reputation of being a defensive-optional type of guy. That means that other teams’ offenses can take advantage of their lack of attention to detail in the defensive zone.

The other risk that the Avs run with MacKinnon and Necas together is that in times of struggle, their skills might end up canceling each other out because they are both trying to force the play rather adapt to what the other one in creating. With players as fast and creative as they both are, even a small amount of crossing wires can result in an offside entry, a missed pass, bumping into each other, or giving the puck away.

Pros – Necas with Nelson

In playing with MacKinnon, Necas would be, by definition, the second play-driver on that line. He would be constantly deferring to MacKinnon. By playing on a line with Brock Nelson, Necas would be the one to quarterback that line in the offensive zone. It would give each of the top two lines a speed guy for zone entries and Necas would be able to use his creativity and passing skill to find a shooter in Nelson and to create rebound and tip opportunities for his other winger in – most likely – either Valeri Nichushkin or Gabriel Landeskog. Having Necas on that second line would give the Avalanche a really deadly one-two punch for opposing teams to try and deal with, especially since those two lines would probably account for over sixty percent of the 5v5 ice time.

Cons – Necas with Nelson

Does spreading the wealth make the Avalanche richer or dilute their effectiveness? Over a small sample size of about 100 minutes together, Necas and Nelson had a poor Corsi For percentage of 49.5%. There is the silver lining that the line still managed to outscore their opposition with four goals for to only one against, but possession is the name of the game and that duo was not particularly adept at keeping the puck out of their own zone. With Necas’ aforementioned disinclination towards a strong defensive game, it is imperative that they out-chance their opponents. There is also a question as to whether Nelson can keep up with Necas, especially in terms of speed and maintaining zone time. Necas’ zone entries will be a lot less effective if he has to wait for his linemates to catch up with him. Looking at Nelson’s NHL Edge Stats, he lags behind both in speed and, especially, offensive zone time. Necas needs to be with a center who can help him produce more than just a one-and-done chance each shift.

I would also be remiss to not mention Necas’ vision for his future in all of this. For many years in Carolina, he paid his dues on the Canes, spending most of his time on the team’s second scoring line, which meant limited ice time. He always felt that his skills warranted a bigger role, but his lack of defensive acuity kept him off of the top line in the Hurricanes’ system. His second-line role was a mixed bag of results until last season where he exploded off the score sheet. Now that he is on the Avalanche, he sees this as an opportunity to be a true top-line star and putting him once again in a reduced second-line role – even a line as strong as this one will be – could be seen by Necas as a reason not to sign a long-term deal in free agency and to play for a team that will guarantee him top-line billing. Some might call him a diva for such an attitude, and they might be right. But it’s also true that Necas has earned the opportunity to decide what is best for him on his next contract.

For this season, at any rate, there really is not a wrong answer as to which line Necas should play on. The Avs have loads of forward talent in the top-6, and head coach Jared Bednar has the luxury of finding which combination of wingers is the most effective with MacKinnon and Nelson. No matter which way it shakes out, it should be a fun season with lots of goals to celebrate, regardless of whether Martin Necas plays on the top line or the second line.