The draft is in the books, and most of the notable free agency signings have already happened. We are now in the ideal window for contract extension talk. For the Colorado Avalanche, the most important piece of business that could be done in that regard concerns Mikko Rantanen.
Rantanen is set to become an RFA in 2025-26, but most believe an extension is in the works. Here at MHS we have already discussed what a deal might look like by the numbers. It is true that the price to retain Rantanen long-term will be hefty. But make no mistake, he is worth the money.
Some of the chatter in Avalanche fan-circles has been hyper-critical of Rantanen. While I disagree vehemently that Rantanen is a problem, I also understand why some might look to place blame. So in part, this article is my way of making the case for keeping Rantanen beyond his current contract. In fact, it is my hope that he spends his whole career in Colorado.
If we look at recent trends, the numbers are astounding. Mikko Rantanen is a point machine. In 2021-22, when the Avalanche last won the cup, Rantanen finished the regular season with 92 total points. The following year, he scored the most goals by an Avalanche player ever in a single season with 55. He added 50 assists, for a career-high of 105 points. This past season Rantanen again tallied 100+ points, only trailing his 2023 total by a single point, finishing with 104.
The Moose detractors among us may argue that Rantanen benefits from playing with another all-world talent in Nathan MacKinnon. That may be true to an extent, but MacKinnon is also blessed to be on the ice with Rantanen. MacKinnon rightfully won the Hart this season with his eye-popping 140 point year. MacKinnon also had 111 points in 2022-23. But it is worth noting that even Nate The Great only ever cracked 100 points the same two seasons Mikko hit the mark.
A lot of sentimental words have been said and written about keeping MacKinnon happy. Fans were correct to be overjoyed at the Drouin extension earlier this summer. I also wrote about how being shrewd in signings is key to success.
That is precisely why extending a player as important as Rantanen now could check both those boxes. You absolutely want Rantanen on a line with MacKinnon for as long as you can make it happen. They are both supercharged scorers when on the ice together. Add to that the increasing salary capwhich experts expect to keep traveling north in the near future. Sounds like a deal for Rantanen now could save Colorado a bundle later.
The negatives about Rantanen seem to center around this idea that he skates 'lazy'. But those comments come from a crowd who tout an eye-test analysis. Last year in the playoffs, where a lot of the blame game started, there was a narrative of a Moose slump. Interestingly though, the raw stats still point to him being highly productive.
In the 2023-24 post-season Rantanen posted 4 goals and 10 assists in 11 games. That is coincidentally, statistically identical to the output of Nathan MacKinnon over the same 11 games. Yes, the team could have done more, but to suggest Rantanen lacks effort is just untrue.
I know as well as any fan that it hurts to think about this last playoff exit. But I would remind readers that it was The Moose himself who scored the lone Avs goal in Game Six.
Mikko Rantanen is on his way to being an all-time great in Avalanche history if he stays with the team. The stats back this up. Rantanen's playoff numbers are statistically elite. Through 81 total games, one game shy of an extra regular season, he has 34 goals and 67 assists. That's another 101 points produced when games matter the most.
If we look at Rantanen's production another way: by a points per game metric, it again suggests Rantanten is among the game's best. Over his entire career, he averages 1.08 PPG. It is a fluid list of course, but still counts as telling a story of consistency. Currently, Rantanen ranks 37th all-time in this stat all about efficiency. Given that he's 27, I expect the skilled Finn to keep climbing that list.
You might like to know that Rantanen is 11th among active players on that PPG list. He is just a tenth of a percent better than Boston's David Pastrnak who some have floated as a potential Rantanen replacement. Other names that follow Mikko's on the list are future Hall-of-Famers Steven Stamkos and Patrick Kane.
Now I am not saying that Rantanen is definitively better than all those guys. But I am pointing out that Rantanen's trajectory is one of greatness. To do anything other than extending him long-term would be near malpractice by the Avalanche.