Top 3 reasons Colorado Avalanche won the NHL Trade Deadline
The Colorado Avalanche were aggressive at the deadline. They improved in key areas and added clarity for a roster ready to win now.
The Colorado Avalanche entered NHL Deadline week with a clear vision of how to improve the roster. This is in part because some of their most pressing issues have been evident for the majority of the regular season. One of their bigger signings in the off-season, forward Ryan Johansen, was unfortunately a bust. However, the Avalanche front office thankfully understood the mistake and worked to rectify it. Where other teams stood their ground and hoped for a turn-around come playoff time, Colorado found a way out. They were also gutsy in finding RyJo's replacement - pulling off the boldest one-for-one deal of trade season.
The Avalanche also took steps to improve depth with particular attention to special teams. With the return for the aforementioned Johansen and some bottom-six depth secured later on they beefed up the potential PK unit. The immediate benefit is obvious as playoff hockey gets tougher both stylistically and literally. The Avs managed to get more physically imposing in a way that should translate well to the post-season.
Finally, in net, Colorado made a statement by not pulling the trigger on a move for a more experienced backup. The wisdom of this may be up for debate - but in realistic terms, it settles the question internally. Now that the deadline has passed, it should draw the collective mission into clearer focus.
The Avalanche were more active than they have been in previous years. Now, let's take a look at what it all means in closer detail.
The answer at 2C: Casey Mittelstadt
The Avalanche have been starved for stability at the second-line center position for far too long. As was pointed out in the trade grading piece here at MHS. Colorado has been searching for an answer since Nazem Kadri left in free agency in 2021. While the Avalanche top-line is arguably the most potent in the NHL team structure just below that can be even more important in relation to overall success.
To be completely honest I was previously pretty down on most of the options that were floated as potential Avalanche targets. While a guy like Adam Henrique would have made sense from a stats angle, the 34-year-old who makes 5.5 million was always going to be a tough sell as a long-term solution. Likewise, the rumoured interest in bringing back Alex Kerfoot left me skeptical. I like the guy personally but re-treads in the league are re-treads for a reason.
Casey Mittelstadt is younger and more affordable to Colorado than Henrique. He is also more than a feel-good reunion story. His 47 points led Buffalo statistically and showed he was ready to break out. That he will now get a chance to do so playing the most high-stakes hockey of his career should be massively motivating.
CMitts has great hands, earning him excited praise from Coach Bednar. He plays smooth and passes extremely well. Mittelstadt is a play-making facilitator who should be a ton of fun to watch alongside wingers like Big Val, Lehky and Drouin (whoever doesn't end up slotting in with the top-line).
Stability at 2C isn't just about more scoring. It should create a trickle-down effect for the other two lines as well. With the frustrating misfit of RyJo, the Avalanche were in a tough spot of shuffling different combinations of lines for months. The Roaring 20's line held down second line duty admirably for a bit - but they were always better suited to a third-line role. Now with LOC out for the year, the point is moot. Still, however Colorado has to configure the lineup it will be easier to fine-tune.
A strengthened Penalty Kill and tougher attitude
The addition of Sean Walker is a key move in bolstering Colorado's PK. As much as I'm on record as a believer in Bowen Byram, Walker is a defensive upgrade. He is in the midst of a career season in point production, just two points off his best year with 17 games remaining. But the true value of Walker is PK duty. Philly, where he played previously, is currently 2nd in the NHL with a 85.4% success rate.
Walker was a major part of that unit in Philadelphia. The Avalanche, meanwhile, sit in 10th on PK success percentage at 80.8%. Those few percentage points difference won't all be made up by one guy, but even a small improvement could have outsize ramifications.
The PK has been noticeably struggling since the All-Star break. One glaring example of these woes came in the February 24th, home-loss against Toronto. The team dropped that game 3-4, after allowing the Leafs to go 2 for 2 with the man-advantage. While it can be argued that individual games are too small of a sample-size for passing judgement the impact on wins and losses is undeniable.
Looking closely at the one game we have seen with the new additions is encouraging. The Avalanche had a lot of new pieces to integrate, and a returning Valeri Nichushkin. In a game with five lineup changes from the previous tilt, Colorado went 4-for-4 on the PK against the Wild.
The team had a strong defensive game and they needed it to win a nail-biter in OT. A stat that immediately jumped out to me from the box score was Colorado leveling 27 hits. That is well above the per-game average of 20, and may indicate an important shift. 27 hits is the most the Avalanche have recorded in the last 10 games as well. It can go a long way toward getting the squad playoff-ready. In case you were wondering, all of Colorado's new guys got in on the hit parade. Yakov Trenin led the way with 4, Walker added 3, and both Duhaime and Mittlestadt chipped in 1 a piece.
Just as the move at 2C can positively impact the lower lines, help to one half of special teams can conversely assist the other side. That of the all important PP. In giving the Avalanche more bodies like Walker, Trenin and even Duhaime to potentially throw out there on the kill, Colorado can keep stars like Cale Makar fresh and ready to capitalize on the man-advantage.
Valeri Nichushkin only needed one game back to prove how much he specifically helps the Avalanche PP. I suspect that as all the new additions get comfortable they will only do more to show their unique value to team chemistry as a whole.
Commitment to Goalie pairing and defined roles
So much of the NHL Trade Deadline comes down to organizational confidence. I touched on the theme last week when even prior to the new Avalanche players arriving the team was visibly energized by news of their impending arrival.
This can be the case even when the front-office decides against making a splashy move. The Avalanche have been grappling with the question of who to trust as a back up to Alexandar Georgiev for most of the year. As it turned out, they decided to put their faith in their in-house development of Justus Annunen.
Some have opined that Georgiev is over-worked as the Avs' primary goalie. He is tied for the NHL lead among goalies at 52 GP (with Jusse Saros) . This is something the team has decided gives them the best chance to win consistently. While it doesn't quite raise to the level of Martin Brodeur, who holds the all-time league record of 78 starts, it is a heavy responsibility.
Yet if you can put yourself in the head-space of a starting goalie, isn't team confidence among the greatest assurances you can have? There were options on the market but Colorado kept the faith in Georgie. That has to feel good for him, even if it means added pressure.
Justus Annunen has been brilliant of late, shutting out Chicago 5-0 in back-to-back starts. But all things considered, it is Chicago. This does not mean Juice is credibly in contention for stealing the starting job. What it does mean, however, is that the Avalanche have enough belief in Justus as a solid #2.
In fact, I believe that Juice is in net tonight against Calgary. This will be an important start, as it is the first half of back-to-back for the Avalanche in Canada. On Wednesday, they face Vancouver, who lead the West in points with 91. If Colorado is going to have a real shot at chasing down the top spot in the conference, wins in the next two would count as a fitting statement that they truly won the Deadline and are ready for more.
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