3 reasons the Colorado Avalanche will upset the Jets in Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs
The Colorado Avalanche may have finished the 2023-24 season on a downward spiral, but that doesn’t mean they will fall to the Winnipeg Jets in the NHL Playoffs.
Well, here we are, ready to roll for the 2024 NHL Playoffs in a quest to see whether the Colorado Avalanche can regain its groove and win their second Stanley Cup in three seasons. No, they haven’t given us much motivation lately, ending the season with a 4-4-2 record while teams like their opponent, the Winnipeg Jets, ended the year 8-2-0 and with one of the best defensive units in hockey, if not the best.
Just how good is Winnipeg defensively? They got arguably the world’s best goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck and the best goaltender insurance in the NHL among backups - in other words, the best goaltender insurance that is not a 1B, but a pure backup.
But that doesn’t mean the Avalanche, despite their struggles against the Jets this season, can’t or won’t beat them. Let’s look at three reasons why Colorado will end up winning this series.
Colorado proved they can score on anyone
While they only put up four goals against Winnipeg during their three-game regular season series, it shouldn’t define the Avs, a team that scored 304 goals this season and just edged out the Toronto Maple Leafs (303 goals) for the league lead.
When you look at some of the best scoring duos in hockey, names like Auston Matthews and William Nylander come to mind, along with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, or J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson, to name a few. Another outstanding duo is right here in Denver, with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen both putting up 100-plus points (140 for MacKinnon).
Overall, these two can and will be nightmares to play against, and they also have a 90-point player in Cale Makar. Four goals against the Jets this season or not, it shouldn’t matter. The Avs can get hot at any time, and it will happen when the stakes are at their highest.
The Avalanche have a major special teams advantage
The Jets are the NHL’s best defensive team…as long as their penalty kill isn’t on the ice. Winnipeg may have outstanding goaltending that allowed just 2.42 goals per contest, but their penalty kill was successful just 77.27 percent of the time, making them one of the bottom 12 in hockey.
Colorado’s power play converted at 24.45 percent this season, well above the NHL average of 20.91. As an upper echelon 5-on-4 unit, the Avalanche don’t just have the advantage here, but if they drew multiple penalties in each game, they’re scoring often on Connor Hellebuyck and company. Overall, their man advantage finished fifth in the NHL, and it wasn’t just the power play unit that clicked - the Avs penalty kill also looked good time and again this season.
Their PK unit finished a healthy 12th in the NHL with an 80.15 success rate. As for Winnipeg’s power play, it scored 19.07 percent of the time, good for just 22nd in the NHL. This isn’t saying Winnipeg won’t score when they’re on the man advantage, but statistically speaking, there is no question over who’s winning the special teams battle, and that could be a major help for Colorado.
The Avalanche are better equipped for playoff hockey
You got a pair of teams ready to roll for what could be a classic battle, featuring a high-powered offense in Colorado vs. a high-powered defense in Winnipeg. But this series may come down to who is better equipped for playoff hockey, and the Avalanche are light years ahead of the Jets in that category.
Alexandar Georgiev may not have played well this season, but let’s remember something: He finished in the top 10 for the Vezina last year and seventh overall. He can get hot at any time and would rival Connor Helelbuyck should the Avs roll with him over Justus Annunen.
We already talked about the kind of damage Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen should cause, and the same goes for Colorado’s ability to provide depth scoring. But general manager Chris MacFarland displayed some serious forward-thinking ability when he brought in Yakov Trenin, Brandon Duhaime, and Sean Walker.
These are two forwards and a defenseman who teams should crave when playoff hockey rolls around. The trio immediately made the Avs a more physical team that could be miserable to play against when the stakes are high.
They aren’t the only ones who have made the Avs more playoff-worthy, but the trio are perfect complements to the high-scoring team. If Colorado figures out its goaltending, they are arguably one of the most complete teams in the 2024 NHL Playoffs.
feed
(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)