Colorado Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon is underpaid by the Colorado Avalanche, according to The Athletic’s NHL’s 10 best contracts.
The list published on July 29 looked at the 10 best contracts based on their book value and their current market value. The current market value is derived from the player’s Net Rating in comparison to average player performance across the league.
By those metrics, Nathan MacKinnon’s contract, at $12.6 million AAV, lands him in the fifth spot. Per the ranking, Nathan MacKinnon’s contract should be worth $18.3 million AAV.
It’s almost unimaginable to think that MacKinnon’s contract is a bargain, but it is. When MacKinnon signed his extension in 2023, some folks were outraged by the then-astronomical AAV.
Now, it looks like the Avalanche lowballed MacKinnon. MacKinnon has earned a +24.9 Net Rating, placing him at an elite 100% ranking. His offensive contributions are off the charts. The only aspect in which MacKinnon did not get at least a 99% ranking was in difficulty.
That’s an interesting point as Nathan MacKinnon consistently plays against other teams’ best opponents. At times, however, other teams’ best defenders do tend to slow MacKinnon down. By that’s only temporary, as MacKinnon is able to turn on a dime and make opponents pay when they least expect it.
The other interesting aspect is MacKinnon’s defensive rating. He gets a +3.0 rating, putting him at a 98% ranking. Of course, that’s a ranking for forwards. It’s intriguing as we don’t tend to think of Nathan MacKinnon as a defensive forward. But when thinking about it more closely, MacKinnon’s line rarely gets burned.
If he doesn’t score, it’s not common that opponents score against MacKinnon.
All told, MacKinnon could easily be the highest-paid player in the NHL if his contract were renegotiated today. The Athletic concluded that MacKinnon’s contract, as mind-shocking as it sounds, has a surplus value of $34 million.
Nathan MacKinnon’s contract 100% Positive Value
Nathan MacKinnon’s contract has a 100% Positive Value Probability based on The Athletic’s calculations. That’s a pretty bold statement, but it rings true. Barring a significant injury, MacKinnon should be as good as gold for the duration of this contract.
However, there is something to be mildly concerned about. MacKinnon’s Net Rating projection has it sliding from a projected +25.2 peak next season to a +18.4 drop toward the final year of his contract.
That’s to be expected. MacKinnon will be 35 by the time his contract expires. So, it makes sense that his production could decline by then.
But that’s only an assumption. Sidney Crosby has proven that players can remain at an elite level as they get closer to 40. That’s why there’s no reason to assume that MacKinnon couldn’t keep up his production well into his mid-30s.
Maybe there’s something in the water in Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, that we need to be aware of.
Be that as it may, MacKinnon’s projected +18.4 rating is ahead of the average player’s performance by leaps and bounds.