This year’s Norris Trophy race could be a little too close for comfort. There’s little doubt that Colorado Avalanche superstar blueliner Cale Makar is the frontrunner.
But the analytics show that the race could be a little closer than most would like. A February 10 piece in The Athletic looked at the numbers behind Makar’s lead in the Norris race. But it’s not quite as big as Avalanche fans would like.
The numbers show that Makar leads the race with a +16.0 Net Rating. The rating is comprised of a player’s offensive and defensive ratings. Makar has a solid +11.6 offensive rating with a decent +4.5 defensive rating.
The numbers show that Makar’s offensive rating supports the bulk of his case. But right behind him is Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings with a +15.7 Net Rating. But Seider’s numbers are pretty much an inversion of Makar’s.
Seider has a +6.3 offensive rating to go with a +9.4 defensive rating. Seider’s defensive rating is the highest among the top-10 blueliners by a country mile. If Seider picked up his offensive game a touch more, he could catch Makar.
Of course, Makar’s offensive game is just too good to overlook. So, as long as his defensive game stays on track, it’ll be hard for Seider to close the gap on Makar.
Makar best defenseman at both ends of the ice
Cale Makar is the best defenseman at both ends of the ice. While he doesn’t actually lead the league in either offensive or defensive ratings, when putting both numbers together, Makar is the best two-way blueliner in the league.
Consider Quinn Hughes’ numbers. Hughes has a +14.2 offensive rating. That’s well above Makar. But when you look at Hughes’ defensive rating, that’s a -0.9. The same goes for Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers. His offensive rating is a +16.0. But his defensive rating is a -3.0.
Another strong contender is Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets. He has a higher offensive rating than Makar at +13.6. However, his defensive rating is just +1.4. While he’s close, he’s not good enough to seriously challenge Makar for the Norris this season.
Ultimately, the Norris is Makar’s to lose. Unless his game somehow suffers at both ends of the ice, it’ll be tough for Seider to close the gap.
Anything can happen from now till the end of the season. But it’ll be Makar’s trophy to lose.