I'm back with the fourth and final instalment of my Keys to the Stanley Cup season preview for the Colorado Avalanche. Check out the first three parts by following the links down below the article. Today, we're discussing the defensive group and the goaltenders and what I'd like to see from each of them to maximize the Avalanche’s chances at raising the Stanley Cup this upcoming season.
The Avalanche defense group is often touted as one of the best in the league, and rightfully so. With Cale Makar and Devon Toews as your top pair, you can't do much better. They were even the top pair for Team Canada at the Four Nations last year and project to be the top pair for them in this year's upcoming Olympics. The rest of the defense group is pretty solid, though there are things to improve upon.
The Avs' situation in net is a complete 180 from what the team started last season with. Mackenzie Blackwood is getting his first real chance at starting for a contending team and Scott Wedgewood is one of the more seasoned and respected backup goaltenders in the league. NHL.com recently published a Super 16 goalie tandem ranking and had the Lumberyard ranked 8th in the league.
Cale Makar
Makar's Key: Pass the 100-point plateau
As I posited with Makar's fellow superstar, Nathan MacKinnon, what more do you want from this guy? He scored 30 goals last season, the first defenseman to do it since Mike Green did it for Detroit in 2009. He led the league with 92 points and points per game at 1.15. And he secured himself his second Norris trophy. So really, what's next?
Let's just go ahead and have him notch another one of those milestones and break that 100-point plateau. I'd be willing to bet that if the Dave Hakstol can get the power play clicking, with the firepower that this Avalanche squad has, this might be his best chance Makar's ever had to reach this milestone.
Devon Toews
Toews's Key: Flip the turnover script
Here I run into a similar conundrum, what more can you ask Toews to do? He's excellent on the defensive side of the game and no slouch when it comes to the offense. But diving deeper into last year's stats, I found something a little troubling that Toews could definitely improve upon - turnovers. Specifically, both giveaways and takeaways.
Last season was the first season that Toews had more giveaways than takeaways since he played for the New York Islanders. To be fair, none of the Avs defensemen were on the positive side of the turnover battle last season either. It's highly unlike Toews to be on this side of things and him righting the ship would be a huge benefit to the team.
Josh Manson
Manson's Key: Let the fans off the rollercoaster
I really like Josh Manson for the Avalanche. However, he's one of the most frustrating players in recent years because of his absolute feast or famine play. He's either making an absolutely brilliant pass or pinch into the zone, or he's making one of the most boneheaded plays of the season. So, all I want is for him to just level things out, and let us fans off this rollercoaster.
He's likely through being a second-pair defensemen as many in the hockey world project him on the third pair with Sam Malinski. Reducing his playing time and pushing him to take on more of a defensive role should limit some of these extremes in his play. Hopefully Malinski doesn't have to bail him out as much as Sam Girard had to over the past few seasons.
Samuel Girard
Girard's Key: Rediscover the offensive touch
Samuel Girard is always looked at as a offensive defenseman, and rightfully so as he's had at least 25 points in five of his NHL seasons. However, the last two seasons have been two of his worst statistically. This season, I'm looking for him to rekindle that offensive touch and push back into that 25 to 35 point range.
I really think that pairing him with Brent Burns instead of Manson is going to do wonders for his offensive game. I think Girard spent too much time the last two seasons covering for Josh Manson's defensive deficiencies. I also think that outside of Toews and Makar, Girard is the most positionally responsible defender on the team.
Brent Burns
Burns's Key: Maintain the Iron Man streak
The first, and only, new face on this list, gets a simple ask from me. Just stay on the ice. Earn those bonuses, maintain that Iron Man streak, and stay healthy. I think his veteran presence is going to do absolute wonders for this defensive group, and I think that to maximize that, he needs to be a constant in the lineup.
Statistically speaking, I'd like to see Burns get into that 30 point area. But more to the point, I'd like to see him be a power play contributor. From studying Hakstol's time in Seattle, he loves defensemen with big, heavy shots. Burns has made a living in the NHL being exactly that, and should at least be on the second unit.
Sam Malinski
Malinski's Key: End the season on the second pair
I thought Sam Malinski ended last season on an extremely high note. Midway through the season, he seemed to find his game, both offensively and defensively. When he first came up, I thought he looked like "Makar-lite," but now he stands out more as "Toews-lite." The only area I feel he really needs to improve upon is his physicality. He clearly looked shaken in the playoff series against Dallas; just as the entire squad didn't seem to step up to that level of physical play.
So how does Malinski end up on the second pair? Well, the easy answer is that Sam Girard gets traded at some point during the season. I really don't want that to happen, but Girard is one of the more movable pieces the Avs have. Can Malinski outplay Girard or Burns? If he continues to build upon how he played at the end of last season, he definitely can.
Keaton Middleton
Middleton's Key: Finally score that elusive first goal
Keaton Middleton spent all of last year taking every chance he could trying to score his first NHL goal. He actually scored one, but had it taken away on a review. I thought Middleton did well when he got to suit up. He filled what I like to call the "Jack Johnson role" nicely. Stay in front of the puck defensively, and when you have the puck on your stick, get rid of it. Either shoot it or pass it. Kept it simple. So, I just want him to finally get that goal.
Mackenzie Blackwood
Blackwood's Key: Be a top 10 goalie
In part 2, I said that Valeri Nichushkin having his best season might be the most important thing for the Avalanche. Then in part 3, I said that Jack Drury capturing the 3C role was right up there as well. Well here, Blackwood solidifying himself as a bona fide top-10 goalie is the most important thing for the Avalanche on this list. He's got the best team he's ever had in front of him and he's heading into the peak age for goaltenders.
According to Hockey-Reference, Blackwood was statistically a top-10 goalie. And that includes his time in San Jose. Blackwood should be able to keep that up this season. In fact, I think it's even possible that Blackwood pushes towards a top-5 finish. The only thing I could see knocking him from top-5 contention is that he has to play against arguably the toughest division in the NHL.
Scott Wedgewood
Wedgewood's Key: Win 70% of his starts
This is just keeping in line with what Wedgewood did last season as he won 13 of the 18 games he started for the Avs. That's right at 72%. Just keep being a solid backup goaltender and a delight for the boys in the locker room. That's all we need to keep the Lumberyard in business.
With Cale Makar and Devon Toews leading the pack in the defensive group and the Lumberyard among the best tandems in the league, these players can all contribute heavily to the success of the team. The situation in the net is vastly improved from the start of last season. The Avs‘ outlook this season looks very promising.