A major storyline of late here on Mile High Sticking has been the potential emergence of Ilya Nabokov.
The 23-year-old netminder could be the best prospect to hit the team this season. And while he’s hardly on track to start the season in the NHL, he could make a serious case.
The Avalanche’s top prospect could change plans faster than most fans might expect.
Let’s go down that rabbit hole.
The Avalanche will have an interesting decision to make regarding Scott Wedgewood this season. The 34-year-old is in the final year of his current deal and is set to become a UFA. Wedgewood is a fan favorite and should remain with the team, should there be an appetite on both sides.
But that’s just the thing. What if Nabokov is so good that keeping him in the AHL just doesn’t make any sense?
What if Nabokov is ready for prime time? Would that be enough to prompt the Avalanche to let Wedgewood go and promote Nabokov?
Looking at it from a financial perspective, it would actually be the best path forward. The Avalanche need to save cap space wherever they can. So, choosing Nabokov over Wedgewood makes sense. Nabokov will need a new contract next summer, but it’s hard to imagine that the Avalanche would pay him more than Wedgewood’s current $2.5 million cap hit.
That’s the sort of cost certainty that the Avalanche will need once Cale Makar’s monster extension kicks in.
But there’s something else to consider here.
Nabokov could eventually take over for MacKenzie Blackwood
The other major consideration to keep in mind is MacKenzie Blackwood.
Colorado has Blackwood under contract for four more seasons at $5.25 million against the cap. That’s not bad. As long as Blackwood plays up to his capabilities, the Avalanche should be fine with the situation.
Things could get dicey, however, if Blackwood doesn’t really impress and Nabokov becomes a star. Nabokov may be so good that he could make Blackwood expendable. And if that’s the case, could the Avalanche consider moving him?
Heck, would a Nabokov-Wedgewood tandem be something potentially in the cards?
It’s a bit of a wild idea. But it all depends on whether Nabokov can prove he’s really that good.
That’s just a supposition at the moment, of course. But it is an intriguing thought.
Avalanche need flexibility in the crease
The Avalanche are hardly in dire straits cap-wise. There is plenty of room to fit in Makar’s new contract, with only a handful of free-agent decisions for next summer.
Still, you have to wonder just how much Nabokov could change the Avalanche’s plans. The organization hasn’t had a goaltending prospect this fascinating in a long time. If the club can develop a homegrown starting netminder, the temptation may be there to cash in on Blackwood in a goalie-starved market. Considering that the 29-year-old Blackwood has a six-team no-trade list, it would hardly be impossible to move him.
The overwhelming likelihood is that Nabokov starts the season in the AHL. But if there’s an injury, unfortunately, it could open the door for Nabokov to entrench himself as an NHL-ready goalie.
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