Through 45 games during the 2025-26 season, Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon leads the team in goals and assists with 36 and 45, respectively. With that in mind, he is on pace for 65 goals and 82 assists. That goal pace would torch his previous career high of 51 goals, set in 2023-24. If he were to continue his assist pace, it would come in as his third-highest assist total of his career.
He is on pace for a magical season. As we’ve grown to know over the course of his career, we should never underestimate MacKinnon. He had a chip on his shoulder in the past after getting passed over for the Hart trophy. However, he is now on schedule to bring home his second Hart trophy in his career.
Elliotte Friedman’s prediction for Nathan MacKinnon by the Olympic break
Recently on his podcast 32 Thoughts, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman was asked whether or not he thinks that MacKinnon would reach 50 goals by the time the Olympic break comes around. Friedman had a disappointing opinion/prediction, though wishing otherwisemightbe a pipe dream.
Now, before we get into Friedman’s answer, I’d like to ask you how close you think MacKinnon will get to 50 by the Olympic break. He has 36 right now. Will he reach 40? 42? How about 45?
If you said 45, you would be right on point with Friedman.
"I’ll say forty-five.Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts
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The Avalanche have 10 games remaining before the Olympic break. With that, he needs to average less than a goal a game (0.8) to reach the mark set by Friedman. While I don’t think that MacKinnon takes anybody else’s goals seriously, he wants to be the best version of himself possible.
He has had multiple four-game goal streaks this season, which is encouraging. For the 2025-26 season, he has 11 games multi-goal games, including one instance where he scored two in back-to-back games.
MacKinnon has a legitimate shot at reaching 50 goals before the Olympic break. Their next few games are against the Nashville Predators (3.29 goals-against average — 26th), Washingotn Capitals (2.78 goals-against average —7th), Anaheim Ducks (3.73 goals-against average — 32nd), and Philadelphia Flyers (2.93 goals-against average — 10th). While some of those games aren’t easy opportunities for MacKinnon, it’s never safe to count him out. He could score in any game if he takes the opportunity to.
He has at least one shot in every single game this season, with a season-high of nine shots, which happened on December 27th against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Avalanche have actually proven that they can win games without MacKinnon chipping in on goals. While it’s not great (compared to the season overall), they have a record of 12-4-4 when MacKinnon is held without a goal.
MacKinnon doesn’t have to score for the Avalanche to be successful, but when he does, it really helps. The team will always welcome some depth scoring from guys such as Gavin Brindley, Victor Olofsson and Parker Kelly. Those players help pick up some of the slack when needed. Hopefully, the Avalanche are able to count on MacKinnon to have more goals in their upcoming games, especially with Gabriel Landeskog out of the lineup for the time being.
While Friedman’s prediction might be accurate, Avs fans hope that it MacKinnon isn’t held to 45 goals before the Olympic break. They want to see the superstar surpass 50, so he could be on a bigger pace to torch his previous season-high, even though he is already on his way to a magnificent season.