Colorado Avalanche winning despite some underwhelming stats

The Colorado Avalanche have been winning games with some less than ideal underlying numbers. Overall, the Avalanche have won 5 of their last 6 contests. Specifically though, I want to zero-in on the last four games.

First, I want to talk about the slow starts. The Avalanche offense looks tentative, in first periods especially. A lot of this can maybe be blamed on the re-entry of so many forwards to the lineup. The return of Valeri Nichushkin, Jonathan Drouin and Miles Wood last week was cause for celebration. Here at MHS we were licking our chops.

Yet, it was perhaps a little too soon to expect a barrage of points. So far in the three games back, the trio has accounted for four points in total. Two have gone to Drouin for assists, Wood has a goal and a helper, and Nichushkin, the biggest gun, has gone scoreless.

These numbers are not bad per se. In fact, they are more than understandable, particularly for Valeri Nichushkin, who hasn't played hockey in six months. But when Big Val was suspended in last year's playoffs, he was on a monster tear. He had an astonishing 9 goals and 1 assist in 8 games played.

Returning to that kind of turbo-charged production is not a realistic expectation, but the team does value his potential contributions very much. They know that when he's going offensively, the top six group is considerably more lethal.

The slow starts have been a head-scratching trend. Against the Kings last Wednesday, Adrian Kempe registered a tally after just 32 seconds, before many butts had even hit seats. Artturi Lehkonen evened things up quickly, but Kempe scored again in the opening frame to take a 2-1 lead.

Thankfully Mikko Rantanen took over the rest of the way. The Moose got loose for three-straight goals. This included an ENG to seal the win, and of course cap off Rantanen's second hat trick of the season.

The one loss Colorado has suffered during this timeframe was Friday night when all the reinforcements arrived. Aside from goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who sustained an upper-body injury and subsequently went for a blessedly brief IR stint.

Justus Annunen struggled pretty mightily that night. He surrendered three iffy goals before being pulled in favor of rookie Trent Miner, who appeared in his first NHL game. The unfortunate stumble from Juice again put doubt in the air about Colorado's tandem in net.

The fact that the Avalanche actually managed to score first in Friday's contest against the Capitals only added a layer of cruel irony. It was a rather thorough drubbing and a 5-2 final. The game also carries the unique distinction of being the only game where Nathan MacKinnon failed to record a shot-on-goal, an issue I will expand on in a bit.

After a tough disappointment, the Avalanche hit the road on an always-difficult east-coast swing. The Avalanche managed to stop a streaking Philadelphia Flyers team who had won three in a row coming into Monday.

In this case, Colorado was lifted by a superstar performance from Cale Makar. Makar continues to dominate the league as the best defenseman in the world. Makar scored two goals against Philly, and would have had a second career hat trick had a goal not been disallowed for goaltender interference.

After failing to score on the man-advantage in the previous two games, Colorado was just 1 of 4 for their chances against the Flyers. However, the Casey Mittelstadt goal to make it 3-0 was scored in the midst of a rather chaotic 4-on-4. As an Avalanche fan, I have long been of the opinion that given our overall team speed, 4-on-4 is almost as good as a proper power play.

Thursday night's revenge win over Washington felt good. Primarily as it relates to a returning Alexandar Georgiev. Georgiev is still having a rough season statistically. A 5-5 mark with 3.31 GAA is hard to ignore. But on Thursday, Georgiev absolutely stole one for the Avalanche. All told, he stopped 28 of 29 shots, and helped the team overcome another sluggish first period where they put themselves behind.

Some of those negative trends did persist, although the Avalanche did convert on one power play out of three. It was Mikko Rantanen who got the credit, although it might be more accurate to thank some fortunate luck. The puck ping-ponged off the skate of a Washington defender and in for the much-needed PPG.

Miles Wood later deflected a Cale Makar shot for the game winner. After sweating out the win, I went to the stats, as is my routine. Even with the conversion last night, the Avalanche power play for the last four games is a paltry 2 of 11. That is not ideal. It comes out to roughly 18%.

That is, however, just a snapshot number. The Avalanche are still second in the league on PP%. That stat is buoyed by a wonderful start. Colorado is still sitting at 30.8% overall, behind only Winnipeg. It stands to reason that the Avalanche will pick it up again, once the reconstituted lineup finds their feet.

I mentioned earlier that Nathan MacKinnon had his only goose-egg in the shot column against Washington on Friday. Right now, it seems to me that the trend towards slow starts rests heaviest on his shoulders.

Within this four-game stretch, MacKinnon has 3 shots, 0 shots, 2 shots, and 3 shots. Those might be respectable numbers for a normal pro hockey player. But are they Nathan MacKinnon numbers? Not really.

It will go unremarked upon by most. Surely that is warranted when the team is figuring out ways to win. In a weird way though, the decreased shot volume from MacKinnon and the underwhelming PP% are encouraging too.

After all, why would it be that MacKinnon is shooting less? He's trying his best to get others going of course. He wants his linemates to get reacclimated to the offensive pace and structure the Avalanche rely on for success.

Whether it's Drouin and Lehkonen on the top-line, or Rantanen and eventually Nichuskin on the power play unit, MacKinnon knows that the team will flourish once everyone is comfortable again in their various roles.

After 20 games, the Colorado Avalanche are 11-9. They have kept competitive long enough to get mostly healthy. With two more tough opponents to come on this roadtrip, the Avalanche have a fantastic opportunity to remind the league who they are: A serious Stanley Cup contender with plenty more to prove.