The Colorado Avalanche are under-achieving. They’re 13-11 through 24 games, which is not where any of the pundits saw them at this stage. They gave up another five-goal game on Friday night against division rival Dallas, which they seem to be doing almost every game these days. Everyone in Avalanche nation would agree that the team defense has been underwhelming, to say the least.
When looking at some of the underlying numbers, however, it’s not quite time to panic.
The Avs have given up 55 goals at 5 on 5. This seems like a high number and the immediate rush to judgment would be to blame the defensive play. That’s partly accurate, but their expected goals against during that same time is only 43.3 – a stark difference.
Their save percentage on shots on goal at 5 on 5 is 88.25%, bad enough for second worst in the NHL, in front of only Montreal. The combined save percentage on unblocked shots is only 92%, also bad enough for second-worst in the league. The save percentage above expected is -1.66%, which means the goaltending has failed to save 1.6 shots per game that were expected saves.
This doesn’t bode well for the team overall, obviously.Further numbers continue to tell a story about where the blame lies. The team expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 is only 2.18. The goals against per 60 minutes is currently at 2.79.
The Avalanche stand fourth in the league in rebound shots above expected at 9 per 5 on 5. This stat shows that the defense is playing well in 5 on 5 and keeping the net area clear after shots. They’re also closing on offensive players if a rebound is allowed, minimizing extra shot attempts.
The Burgundy and Blue have only given up 39 high danger-shots at 5 on 5 this season. That number is good for fifth in the league. The defense has been doing its job at keeping other offenses out of high value positions while at 5 on 5.
Sure, the overall play hasn’t been great defensively. After looking at the in-depth numbers, it would lead one to believe that these numbers are not, in fact, caused by a lack of team defensive continuity, at least at 5 on 5. There are obvious reasons for the poor play, but it’s clear that lies with the other area of the team Avs nation is clamoring for a change at – goaltending.
It’s likely the team will get into a groove in all aspects of the game and begin playing better. This continuity needs to happen far sooner than later, and it may come with a new goaltender. The team defense appears it will continue to play well.