The Colorado Avalanche have been ominously quiet on the trade rumor front this season. Looking at the club’s record, back-to-back regulation losses notwithstanding, it’s easy to see why. The Avs don’t really need much this season beyond bolstering depth. Then again, just about every contending club in the league needs to bolster its depth.
Nevertheless, a stunning trade rumor has popped out seemingly out of nowhere, linking the Avalanche to an impending UFA.
Before proceeding, I would like to add a word of caution. This rumor seems highly implausible. Still, it’s worth exploring as the overall context could make this rumor potentially true.
In a January 6 piece in RG Media, veteran journalist James Murphy tackled the situation enveloping the New York Rangers. In the piece, Murphy discussed a conversation with an anonymous source close to the Rangers.
One of the topics that came up in said conversation is the Rangers’ plans moving forward. In particular, the source discussed how impending UFA Artemi Panarin has been the subject of background discussions involving a potential trade.
The source stated:
“I heard his name (Panarin) out there leading into the Holiday Roster Freeze.”
All right, so nothing mind-shocking there. The chatter surrounding Panarin all season has been his reluctance to sign a short-term extension or give anyone a break. That situation has prompted speculation that the Rangers might just trade Panarin in order to cut their losses.
However, the source added this mind-blowing bit:
“The question is: Is there a team out there willing to take him on as a rental? I would think Colorado or Dallas could be interested. …maybe Detroit?”
Seriously? Would the Colorado Avalanche be looking at Panarin? I mean, just about every team in the NHL would like to add Artemi Panarin. But not every team could actually do it.
The speculation is that the Rangers would like to get a player back in said trade. The purpose, according to Murphy, is for the Rangers to shake up their roster. So, if such a trade occurred, New York would like to get players of comparable value in return.
But that’s only the beginning of everything wrong with this rumor.
Why Panarin to Colorado Avalanche rumors seem completely implausible
Firstly, the obvious element here is the anonymous source. Murphy would naturally protect his source, particularly since they spoke on the condition of anonymity. Be that as it may, RG does have a track record for being close to the mark on such rumors. That’s why this rumor comes with a grain of salt.
Secondly, Panarin comes with an $11.5 million cap hit. Even if the Rangers retained half of that, the Avalanche would struggle to fit Panarin’s contract under the cap. The Avs have $1.3 million in space at the moment. So, landing Panarin, even at about $6 million, would mean jettisoning a contract out to balance the books.
Thirdly, there’s the question of what the Rangers want back. The Blueshirts aren’t looking for futures. They want players who can help their team now. That situation means no draft picks and no prospects.
So, what could the Avalanche offer in return? Perhaps the Rangers may want someone like Valeri Nichushkin. Maybe a defenseman like Samuel Girard? It’s tough to speculate what the Avalanche would be willing to give up.
Fourthly, there’s the question of Panarin’s no-trade clause. Panarin has a full no-trade clause, meaning he would have to approve any deal the Rangers want to make. Now, you would have to think Panarin would be happy to join the Avalanche. So, let’s assume that wouldn’t be a hurdle. But then again, you never know if that would be automatic.
Nevertheless, the thought of playing with Nathan MacKinnon could be too much for Panarin to pass up. Panarin could slide into the Avalanche’s top line with MacKinnon and Necas, arguably transforming said line into the league’s best.
Lastly, there’s the question of extending Panarin. As the piece in RG Media noted, Panarin would be a rental. That scenario entails Panarin playing out the remainder of the season in Colorado, then hitting the free-agent market.
If that were the case, giving up someone like Nichushkin, for instance, would be dumb. Unless the Avalanche were confident Panarin could re-sign in Colorado, making this deal just wouldn’t make sense.
Ultimately, there’s one scenario in which I could envisage this possible deal coming to fruition. That scenario would involve Gabe Landeskog going down for the season. Placing him on season-ending LTIR could free up some cap space to make the math work. The scenario also entails the Rangers becoming so desperate to make a move that they would be willing to trade Panarin for below their expectations.
This trade rumor is about as far-fetched as they come. But then again, we’ve seen weirder things happen in the NHL.