The Colorado Avalanche could have dodged a major bullet by trading Mikko Rantanen when they did. That may sound like a harsh assessment, but the numbers seem to back it up.
An August 6 piece in The Athletic took a deep dive into all 32 NHL teams’ salary cap situation. The Avalanche got an A. The team’s savvy cap management has given it a heads-up on the competition.
But when looking at the Dallas Stars’ grade, their solid A grade shows more than meets the eye. A pair of high-profile contracts stands out as ones with less-than-optimal value. One in particular is surprisingly bad.
We’re talking about Mikko Rantanen’s eight-year, $96 million deal signed this past season. The deal itself was wrought with skepticism. Rantanen ended up signing essentially the same deal the Avalanche had offered.
However, The Athletic’s assessment reveals that Rantanen’s deal has a negative surplus value of $4.2 million, and the deal has barely kicked in. That projection is underscored by the contract's positive value probability of 43.8%.
In other words, Rantanen’s value has less than a 50/50 chance of turning out successful. Part of that situation has to do with questions about Rantanen sustaining his level of production over the next eight seasons. He may be a solid player in the first half of the deal. But in the latter half, it seems there’s little expectation that Rantanen will earn his money’s worth.
That’s why it seems the Avalanche dodged a bullet by trading Rantanen when they did.
Colorado Avalanche could get more value from Martin Necas
Martin Necas, the player for whom Rantanen was traded for, has a better outlook for this upcoming season. The final year of Necas’ contract yields a projected $1.7 million positive surplus value, with an 86% positive value probability.
That’s not a bad number considering the Avalanche will be hoping that reports of Necas’ unhappiness in Colorado were nothing more than hot air. If Necas can replicate his numbers from last season, the Avalanche will be sitting pretty.
Moreover, a strong start from Necas could elevate his trade value even more. That possibility could come to a head if the Avalanche don’t believe they can re-sign Necas long-term. As such, the Avs could flip Necas for a better return, depending on the specific market circumstances.
The fact is that Necas is unlikely to have a bad season. While anything can happen, it’s doubtful he struggles this upcoming season. Necas has long been anticipating a big free-agent payday. So, he’ll be motivated to do his best in order to parlay that into a big free agent contract.
Whether that’s in Colorado or anywhere else, remains to be seen.