Macklin Celebrini’s contract extension with the San Jose Sharks has become the talk of the NHL. The Sharks were pretty much helpless in the negotiation. San Jose had to pay up to keep Celebrini. The only question was how much.
We can debate whether Celebrini is actually worth $18.8 million AAV. But the bottom line is that his contract has now complicated matters for the Colorado Avalanche, and specifically Cale Makar.
The rationale here is simple. If Celebrini is worth $18.8 million, how much is Cale Makar worth?
It might be a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison. But the superficial analysis is the same nonetheless. The Sharks made Celebrini the highest-paid player in the league despite not winning anything in his career.
He’s got two seasons under his belt, with one fantastic 100-point year.
That’s it.
Meanwhile, Makar’s resume is well-known. Even though he hasn’t scored 100 points, he’s scored 30 goals and 90 points as a defenseman. That’s objectively worth more, particularly as a two-time Norris Trophy winner, than a forward.
So, if Makar’s camp wanted to go to the Avalanche and say, “Celebrini is worth $18.8 million, Makar should get the max $20.8 million,” who’s going to disagree?
The Avalanche might want to talk Makar’s camp down from the ledge. But the only way that will happen is if the Avalanche somehow promise a bigger payday down the road.
Makar will not likely gouge Avalanche
One of the things I’ve said throughout this conversation is that Makar’s camp will not strangle the Avalanche. While Colorado will search through the couch cushions to find the loose change to pay Makar, the problem is the cap.
A max cap hit from Makar would essentially doom the Avalanche’s chances of building a competitive roster despite the ceiling going up in the next couple of seasons.
So, it’s likely that the Avs and Makar will agree to a short-term deal. Potentially, something along the lines of three to five years would close the gap.
However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Makar’s camp go the Connor McDavid route and agree to a two-year deal with a slight bump in pay.
The rationale for such a move would be simple. In the summer of 2029, the cap will be at $123 million. PuckPedia shows that the Avalanche will have over $57 million in cap space by then.
So, wouldn’t it be easier to negotiate under those terms?
For now, the Avs have about $32 million projected in cap space for next summer. If the Avs can lock up Makar for two more seasons at, oh, $12 million, that will leave Colorado with plenty of cap space for trades, re-signings, and a potentially free-agent move here or there.
If Makar’s camp goes that route, they’ll prove they're committed to helping the organization win now.
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