Breaking down the first ten games of the Colorado Avalanche’s season

Colorado Avalanche coach Jared Bednar has said that he does not take any one game too seriously as far as results for or against are concerned. Rather, he looks at the patterns and trends on each ten-game segment to determine the team’s strengths and weaknesses and how to improve for the following ten-game stretch.

Now that the first ten games are in the books for the Avs, let’s take a look at how they got here and some of the big picture trends that were evident in their play over the course of the past few weeks.

How they got here

The Avs started the season strong with a 5-0-1 record in their first six games with wins against the Kings, Mammoth, Sabres, Blue Jackets, and Bruins with their only stumble coming against the Stars in a shootout. Since then, the team has struggled, losing in extra time to the Mammoth, Hurricanes, and Devils as well dropping their first regulation loss against the Bruins.

Top line on fire

The biggest benefit that the Avs have enjoyed so far this season is the hot start of the top line with Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, and Artturi Lehkonen. That trio has accounted for seventeen goals and thirty-seven points in this span. And it is not just about the goals for them. They are dominating puck possession. In over 117 minutes together 5v5, the top line has a Corsi for percentage of 62 percent and a goals for percentage of 75 percent. As the season progresses, they should continue to hone their chemistry and grow even more dangerous while out on the ice.

Second line sputtering

With as effective as the top line has been, the second line has been inconsistent as best. After a cold start the first few games, Valeri Nichushkin has seen some sustained success, but linemates Brock Nelson and Gabriel Landeskog still have not yet hit their stride. In the final game of this segment against the Devils, Viktor Olofsson rotated up to this line in place of Landeskog in order to help reinforce their scoring, which worked as he factored in on Nichushkin’s goal in the first period. Later on, with Ross Colton on the wing, Nelson scored the game-tying goal. Things are definitely looking up for the second line as they search for the right fit alongside Nelson and Nichushkin.

Problematic power play

The Avs has thirty-seven power play opportunities and were only able to score on four of them for a paltry 10.3 percent success rate. For as good as their 5v5 play has been, their power play has been the exact opposite. The shot map on HockeyViz shows a big black hole right in front of the net where the Avs are producing very little in terms of shots, rebounds, and scoring chances. They are being kept at the perimeter, in part due to their opponents’ penalty kill strategies, but also in large part to their own desire to find the perfect pass rather than just get pucks on net and outwork the defenders for second and third chances. This funk will continue until they get out of their own heads and out of their own way.

Stubbornness in net

With Mackenzie Blackwood sidelined, the Avs and Jared Bednar have leaned heavily on backup goaltender Scott Wedgewood. At the beginning of the season, Wedgewood was up to the task and was strong through the first six games. But the heavy usage caught up to him and he struggled his last three starts including getting pulled in the first period of the game against the Hurricanes. Rather than being stubborn and overworking Wedgewood, Bednar needs to more judiciously deploy the goalies, both before and after Blackwood’s return. Keeping the goalies fresh will be foundational to the team’s success moving forward.

Despite a hot start to the season, the Colorado Avalanche some details to clean up to get back to being the dominant team that they should be. The return of Mackenzie Blackwood should certainly help with that. Getting the power play online and some more contributions outside of the top line will also add to the punch that the Avs can pack.