Just past the midway mark of the regular season, the Colorado Avalanche are hitting their stride. Over their last ten contests the Avalanche are 8-1-1. The two losses in that span were recent, and honestly, not great.
The shootout loss to Montreal that snapped their six game win streak was a bummer to watch. Still, the team did something positive for the first time this season: they snatched their first OTL point. As a fan you never love those games, but over a season, every little bit helps.
Turning around and beating the defending Cup champion Florida Panthers on Monday showed that the Avalanche wouldn't let a tough result deflate the momentum they have built up in recent weeks. They may have been surprised by a great showing by Montreal rookie Jakub Dobes, who has been stellar in two starts, only allowing one goal on 57 shots faced. But following that up by outlasting one of the NHL's best Sergei Bobrovsky, when he too was going good, stopping 31 of 33 shots, proved Colorado's mettle.
The Avalanche were again met with some disappointment in losing to Chicago on Wednesday. A 3-1 loss to Central Division basement-dwellers, who are 14-25-2, is never going to feel good., even if you chalk that one up as okay because it was rookie backup Trent Miner's first NHL start. The case of Dobes may be an outlier, but it provides plenty of proof that inexperienced goalkeepers can start hot.
Once more though, this time on zero rest, the Avalanche responded how a real contender should. Last night, they routed rival Minnesota 6-1. One might be tempted to give all the credit to new Avalanche starter Mackenzie Blackwood who has indeed been even better than advertised. In 10 appearances, Blackwood has already collected eight wins. The same number as the departed Alexandar Georgiev.
As the newest MHS contributor Andrew pointed out this week, good play in net masks other problems. That is an evergreen truth in hockey. Still, the rest of the team has to come along if you are going to get wins.
The Colorado Avalanche have managed to avoid meaningful skids in the win column since the big goalie trades. To be direct, Colorado has not lost two straight since November 29th and 30th against Dallas and Edmonton. That is a huge feat for a team that started 0-4, and then won 5 straight before hitting another 0-3 patch.
Simply put, winning teams don't make a habit of being so streaky. While I try not to get too consumed with watching the standings, it makes perfect sense to start taking stock of where you are at the halfway mark. Colorado is still behind three teams in the Central: Dallas, Minnesota and Winnipeg.
However, the point margin is shrinking and Colorado is catching up. With key wins against the Jets and Wild, and another tilt coming with Winnipeg on Saturday, the Avalanche are finally making our rivals sweat.
I fully believe that the Avalanche will finish atop the Central standings this season. I also still think Jared Bednar should receive his first Jack Adams Award. When I wrote that opinion in the first week of November, I was not this confident in the team as a whole. The injury parade unfortunately continues to be a concern.
Team perseverance is being proven on a nightly basis. The most recent case is that of Samuel Girard, who was a late-scratch for last night’s game in Minnesota. Initially I took this as a bad sign, especially after writing last week about how steady and important Girard has been. Girard did block another rough shot on Wednesday, but I'm unsure if that was the cause of his absence. Luckily, the team has him listed as day-to-day, which means he could return as soon as Saturday.
Girard's blueline partner Josh Manson, who himself is only recently back from IR, showed up Thursday and had his best game of the season. Big #42 chipped in two assists, and was a driving force of action from the backend. Depth like that continues to make Colorado's defense the envy of the NHL.
Getting back to why that bounce back ability is so crucial to success. It is an indicator of post-season viability. Being a stats guy with a relatively good memory, those storied Avalanche Cup runs are never far from my mind.
If we take a step back in history and remember Colorado's greatest glory years you will surely recall 95-96, 2000-01 and 2021-22. In those three Stanley Cup campaigns it might interest you to learn that the first and last Cups felt like domination for the most part. The Avalanche never lost two games in a row in either of those Playoffs. As such, they never even had to sweat an elimination game.
In 2000-01 things were distinctly more sweaty. The Avalanche had to beat both the Kings and Devils in a 7-game series to hoist the Cup. For a brief window, the Colorado Avalanche felt like Game Seven locks. They actually won four straight such occasions through 2001-2002.
After again sending the Kings out in seven, the Avalanche did the same to the Sharks. Then, regrettably, it all came crashing down in spectacular fashion. The Avalanche lost the 2002 Western Final to Detroit 7-0, in the saddest hockey game I ever saw. Colorado, shockingly, has not won a Game Seven since. The burgundy and blue are 0 for their last 6 in that category.
The lesson I have learned from that experience? Avoid Game Seven entirely. The best way to do that, is to start by avoiding even the beginning of a skid when it matters most. Getting used to that rhythm of play now will not only help you for seeding, but could be massive come April, and hopefully June.